2011—2022年广元市流行性腮腺炎流行特征及时间序列分析研究

Epidemiological characteristics and time series analysis of mumps in Guangyuan City from 2011 to 2022

目的通过分析2011—2022年广元市流行性腮腺炎(简称流腮)流行特征,并结合构建模型对该病发病趋势进行短期预测,为广元市流腮防控工作提供决策依据。方法收集2011—2022年广元市流腮发病资料,运用ArcGIS绘制分布地图并进行空间自相关分析,利用Moran’s I指数评估该病在各区县之间的聚集趋势,运用SPSS 26.0软件构建时间序列模型进行发病趋势短期预测,并数据进行预测结果的评价。结果2011—2022年广元市流腮年均报告发病率为26.85/10万;季节性聚集特征较为明显,发病呈现双峰分布(3至7月、11月至次年1月),以春末夏初为主;全局自相关分析结果显示各年份均不存在空间自相关;男性流腮发病率高于女性(χ^(2)=146.13,P<0.01),发病年龄主要集中在5~9岁年龄组;时间序列模型拟合较好的最优模型为ARIMA(2,1,2)(1,1,1)12,其中平稳R2=0.788,所得到的拟合值与实际值趋势基本一致,且各月实际发病率均位于预测发病率的95%可信区间内。结论广元市流腮的发病和传播主要与学校学生聚集有关,建议继续加强学校流腮疫情综合防控及适龄儿童2剂次腮腺炎疫苗接种工作,ARIMA模型在广元市流腮时间序列中能很好地拟合和预测,能为流腮风险预测和科学防控提供依据。

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of mumps in Guangyuan City from 2011 to 2022,to establish a model to forecast the incidence trend of mumps in the short term,and to provide decision-making basis for the prevention and control of mumps in Guangyuan City.Methods The incidence data of mumps in Guangyuan City from 2011 to 2022 were collected.ArcGIS was used to draw distribution maps and conduct spatial autocorrelation analysis.The Moran’s I index was used to evaluate the clustering trend of mumps among different districts/counties.SPSS 26.0 was used to establish a time series model for short-term incidence trend prediction and evaluate the prediction results.Results The average annual reported incidence rate of mumps in Guangyuan City from 2011 to 2022 was 26.85/105.There were obvious seasonal aggregation features with two incidence peaks,March to July and November to January of the following year,mainly in late spring and early summer.The results of global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that there was no spatial autocorrelation among years.The incidence rate of mumps in men was higher than that in women(χ^(2)=146.13,P<0.01),and the onset age was mainly in the age group of 5-9 years old.The best fitting model obtained from the time series model was ARIMA(2,1,2)(1,1,1)12,with a stationary R2 of 0.788.The predicted values were in good agreement with the actual trend,and the actual incidence rate of each month was within the 95%confidence interval of the predicted incidence rate.Conclusions The incidence and transmission of mumps in Guangyuan City were mainly related to the gathering of school students.It is suggested to continue strengthening the comprehensive prevention and control of mumps epidemics in schools and the 2-dose vaccination against mumps among eligible children.The ARIMA model can effectively fit and forecast the time series of mumps in Guangyuan City,which provides basis for risk prediction and scientific prevention and control of mumps.