中国“外循环”前向依赖网络结构特征及上游断裂风险传导路径研究

A Study on Structural Characteristics of China's"External Circulation Forward Dependence Network and Transmission Path of the Upstream Fracture Risk

文章利用亚洲开发银行多区域投入产出表和Floyd算法构建了中国“外循环”前向依赖网络。研究发现:第一,网络具有“小世界”结构特征;上游断裂风险主要以直接方式传导到中国;中国的基础金属制品业、农业、木材加工业、化学制品业、焦炭石油冶炼业和采矿业是连接“双循环”的核心中介部门,首先受到上游断裂风险冲击并将风险传导到中国其它部门。第二,网络具有“核心-外围”结构特征;澳大利亚、巴西、俄罗斯的采矿业,中国台湾、韩国、日本的电气电子设备制造业,韩国、中国台湾、日本、美国的化学制品业,巴西、美国的农业及德国的运输设备制造业、机械设备制造业是核心上游部门;核心上游部门供应断裂,冲击难以被其它市场抵消,中国的电气电子设备制造业、焦炭石油冶炼业、橡胶塑料制品业和化学制品业将受到严重冲击。

This paper uses the multi-regional input-output table of Asian Development Bank and Floyd algorithm to construct China's"external circulation"forward dependence network.The research shows that:firstly,the network has the structural characteristic of"small world";the upstream fracture risk is mainly transmitted directly to China;China's basic metal products industry,agriculture,wood processing industry,chemical products industry,coke oil refining industry and mining industry are the core intermediary sectors connecting"dual circulation"which are first affected by the upstream fracture risk and transmit the risk to other sectors in China;secondly,the network has the structural characteristic of"core-periphery";mining industry of Australia,Brazil and Russia,electrical and electronic equipment manufacturing industry of Chinese Taiwan,South Korea and Japan,chemical products industry of South Korea,Chinese Taiwan,Japan and the United States,agriculture of Brazil and the United States,and transportation and mechanical equipment industry of Germany are the core upstream sectors;the supply of the core upstream sectors is broken and the impact is difficult to be offset by other markets.China's electrical and electronic equipment manufacturing industry,coke oil refining industry,rubber and plastic products industry and chemical products industry will be severely affected.