东盟在“南海行为准则”磋商中立场的发展演变

The Evolution of ASEAN's Positions in the Negotiation on Code of Conduct in the South China Sea

作为世界上持续时间最长的外交互动之一,“南海行为准则”磋商进程自2013年启动以来时断时续,却在近几年取得了令人振奋的进展。纵观东盟在磋商中集体立场的演进,维护地区国家间和平关系、确保东盟中心性两大共同利益是促进东盟集体立场形成的主要动因;而成员国利益的差异性、东盟的组织特性则不时将东盟立场拖入困境。近年来中美关系的变化以及由此引发的美国政策因素则既凸显了东盟共同利益,又增加了其集体行动的难度。在共同利益驱动和集体行动困境的交替影响下,东盟立场虽然助力“准则”磋商取得了不错的成绩,但在进入细节化磋商后势必面临不确定性。为使磋商达到预期目标,通过“去小集团化”“去国际化”“去安全化”“去唯国际法化”和推进务实海洋合作的方式,构建以“东盟方式”为基底的“准则精神”,是未来东盟以集体立场促进磋商取得进展和“准则”发挥实际效力的关键所在。

As one of the longest-running diplomatic interaction in the world,the negotiation process on the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea between China and ASEAN has achieved inspiring results in recent years.This article focuses on the past 10 years'evolution of ASEAN collective positions on the COC negotiation,and finds that there are two mutual interests among ASEAN members,which are maintaining regional peace and ASEAN's centrality and unity,serving as the main drivers for ASEAN establishing its positons.Meanwhile,the divergent interests among member states and the nature characteristics of ASEAN often dragged ASEAN's position into dilemma.Changes of U.S.-China relations in recent years and the resulting US policy on SCS are driving as well as dragging factors.Under the complexing effects of all those factors,while ASEAN's collective positions has helped the COC negotiation to get progress in the past,they are bound to face uncertainties in the future.In order to achieve the desired objectives of the negotiations,the COC spirit is the key to ASEAN's collective positions in the future to promote progress in negotiations and the effectiveness of the COC on the basis of the"ASEAN Way"through"de-small grouping","de-intemationalisation","de-securitisation"and"de-intemationalisation"and the promotion of pragmatic maritime cooperation.