东南亚在国际产业转移中的困境与机遇

Dilemmas and Opportunities for Southeast Asia in International Industrial Transfers

从对国内产业结构的分析出发,本文展示了东南亚发展中国家被动依靠国际产业转移推进本国产业发展的“天花板”现象:制造业劳动生产率难以突破区域前沿水平的40%,且随着人均收入的提高,越来越难以实现制造业生产规模与技术水平的提升,转而依靠低端服务业的繁荣来吸收大量富余劳动力。历史经验表明,要突破产业升级“天花板”并维持制造业增长,需要政策制定者超越简单吸引外来投资的政策安排,转而战略性地利用融入全球生产的机会以发展本土制造业。但是,跨国企业与东道国之间的权力不对称限制了相关政策供给,而更具竞争性的政体与分散的国内利益结构又抑制了对相关政策的需求。与一些批评相反,来自中国的全球治理参与、跨国产业合作与经济理论创新为东南亚发展中国家提供了新的制造业发展动力。

Starting from the analysis of the domestic industrial structure,this article demonstrates the"ceiling"phenomenon of developing countries in Southeast Asia passively relying on industrial transfer to promote development:the labor productivity of manufacturing industry is difficult to break through the 40% of the regional frontier level,and with the increase of per capita income,countries It is increasingly dificult to maintain a transformation driven by manufacturing,and instead shift to one driven by low-end services.Sustaining manufacturing growth at the middle-income stage requires policymakers to move beyond policy arangements that simply attract foreign investment to strategically exploit opportunities to integrate global production to develop local manufacturing.But power asymmetries between MNEs and host countries limit the supply of such policies,while more competitive regimes and fragmented domestic interest structures dampen demand for such policies.Contrary to some criticisms,China's participation in global govemance,transnational industrial cooperation,and innovation in economic theory have provided new impetus for structural transformation in Southeast Asian developing countries.