贸易成本对中国与欧亚经济联盟出口持续时间的影响研究

On the Influence of Trade Cost on Export Duration of China and the Eurasian Economic Union

贸易成本是国家间贸易往来的重要影响因素之一,出口持续时间是考察国际贸易关系好坏的重要标准。运用Novy模型和生存函数模型分别测度了中国与欧亚经济联盟的贸易成本及出口持续时间,并将贸易成本作为核心变量纳入Cloglog模型探索影响出口贸易持续时间的因素。研究发现:第一,中国与欧亚经济联盟出口持续时间普遍较短,中位数仅为3年;在持续3年以后大部分贸易关系终结。第二,贸易成本增加了双边出口贸易关系失败的风险,进而缩短出口贸易持续时间。第三,传统引力模型变量、产品层面变量以及汇率对出口持续时间的影响均比较显著。

Trade cost is one of the important factors affecting trade between countries,and export duration is an important standard to evaluate the quality of trade relations between countries.By the use of Novy model and survival function model,the trade cost and export duration of China and the Eurasian Economic Union are measured respectively,and trade cost is incorporated into Cloglog model as a key variable to explore the factors affecting the duration of export trade.The results show that firstly,the duration of export between China and the Eurasian Economic Union is generally short,with a median of only 3 years,after which most trade relations end.Secondly,trade cost significantly increases the risk of bilateral export trade relationship failure,thus shortening the duration of export trade.Thirdly,traditional gravity model variables,product-level variables and exchange rate all have significant effects on export duration.