美国货币政策调整的跨境传导及其对我国经济的影响

International Transmission of U.S.Monetary Policy and Its Impact on Chinese Economy

美国货币政策对新兴市场经济体的影响是政策当局争论最激烈的问题之一,其跨境传导机制也是国际金融领域研究的重要问题。当前全球经济不确定性提高,我国经济下行风险加大,同时美国货币政策将出现重大转向,这更促使对美国货币政策调整的跨境传导机制以及其对我国经济的溢出影响的思考。本文将从利率、汇率、贸易、投资组合再平衡、生产网络等渠道分析美国货币政策的跨境传导,并通过向量自回归模型考察美国货币政策对我国经济的外溢影响。面对当前百年未有之大变局和不确定性风险的提高,了解美国货币政策对新兴市场经济体的溢出渠道,同时以史为鉴,从以往重大事件中汲取经验,对当地经济抵御外部政策的负面冲击具有重要政策启示。

The impact of US monetary policy on emerging market economies is one of the most hotly debated issues among policy authorities,and its international transmission mechanism is also an important issue in the field of international finance.At present,the global economic uncertainty is increasing,the downside risk of Chinese economy is increasing,and the US monetary policy will take a major turn,which further prompts us to think about the international transmission mechanism of the US monetary policy adjustment and its spillover impact on Chinese economy.This paper will analyze the international transmission of US monetary policy from the channels of interest rate,exchange rate,trade,portfolio rebalancing,production network and so forth,and furthermore investigate the spillover impact of US monetary policy on Chinese economy through the vector autoregressive model.In the face of the“Profound Changes Unseen in a Century”and increase in the global uncertainty risk,understanding the spillover channels of US monetary policy to emerging market economies,while taking history as a mirror and learning from previous major events,is of great significance to protect local economies against the negative impact of external policies.