迈向“西南方大国”:冷战后印度小多边外交的演进逻辑

Towards the South-Western Power:Evolution,Trends,and Challenges of India's Minilateral Diplomacy

小多边外交是当前印度开展对外交往的重要方式。冷战后的印度小多边外交经历了冷战后初期的转型性小多边、秩序改革背景下的机制化小多边以及大国竞争时代的印太小多边三个阶段。在“西南方大国”的目标框架下,印度的小多边外交具有接近西方联盟体系的“西向外交”、坚持发展中国家定位的“南向外交”以及以实力为基础推动次区域合作的“优势外交”等演进逻辑,显示了印度在日益靠近西方联盟体系的倾向中,仍努力坚持其自主大国的战略定位。不过,由于目标定位与战略手段之间的结构性矛盾,印度的小多边外交一方面不得不依附于西方大国的意志、实力和关系,从而导致战略不对等、不确定和被动性;另一方面则难以独立发挥作用,从而陷入了身份定位的两难,制约着印度自主大国外交的成效。

Minilateral diplomacy is an important approach for India to carry out foreign relations at present.This paper divides India's minilateral diplomacy into three stages:transformational minilateralism in the post-Cold War period,institutionalized minilateralism under the background of the international system reform,and Indo-Pacific minilateralism in the era of great power competition.Under the framework of the South-Western power,India's minilateral diplomacy reflects such a trend:Westward Diplomacy that closes to the Western Alliance system,Southward Diplomacy that positions as a developing country,and Dominant Diplomacy that sub-regional cooperation based on its power,which shows that India is still trying to adhere to its strategic positioning as an autonomous power in the trend of getting closer to the Western alliance system.However,due to the structural contradiction between goal positioning and strategic means,India's minilateral diplomacy has to depend on the will,strength and relations of Western powers,which leads to strategic imbalance,uncertainty and passive.On the other hand,it is difficult to play its role independently,which leads to the identity dilemma and restricts the effectiveness of India's autonomous power diplomacy.