基于情绪因素的突发事件网络舆情治理研究

Research on Network Public Opinion Governance in Emergencies Based on Emotional Factors

[目的/意义]研究突发事件网络舆情所涉及各主体的情绪因素对舆情演化方向的影响,旨在为突发事件的网络舆情治理提供参考。[方法/过程]基于等级依赖期望效用(RDEU)理论,引入情绪因素,针对突发事件网络舆情治理问题,建立了网络媒体和地方政府决策的演化博弈模型,通过数值仿真对不同条件下博弈双方行为策略演化过程进行推演模拟。[结果/结论]网络媒体的情绪因素对博弈结果的影响相对较小,地方政府对其影响较大;在舆情传播热度较小的情况下,网络媒体和地方政府均会在较短时间内做出符合自身利益的行为策略;中央政府制定良好的处罚机制可以有效防止突发事件网络舆情传播热度上升,避免产生大规模集群现象。

[Purpose/significance]This paper investigates the influence of emotional factors of each subject involved in the network public opinion of emergencies on the direction of public opinion evolution aiming to provide a reference for the network public opinion governance in emergencies.[Method/process]Based on Rank Dependent Expected Utility(RDEU)theory this paper introduces emotional factors and establishes an evolutionary game model of online media and local government decision-making in response to the problem of network public opinion governance in emergencies.And it deduces and simulates the evolution process of the behavior strategies of both sides of the game under different conditions through numerical simulation.[Result/conclusion]The influence of emotional factors of online media on the game outcome is relatively small and the influence of local governments on the game outcome is greater;When the popularity of public opinion is low both online media and local governments make behavioral strategies in line with their own interests in a shorter period of time;A good punishment mechanism formulated by the central government can effectively prevent the rise of the popularity of network public opinion in emergencies and the production of large-scale clusters.