如何兼顾降碳约束与经济稳态增长?——以技术效率为内生转化媒介的动态门槛检验

How to Promote Carbon Reduction Constraints and Steady Economic Growth Mutually?——Dynamic Threshold Test with Technical Efficiency as Endogenous Transformation Medium

全面建设社会主义现代化需要探索一条具有中国特色的包容性降碳路径,兼顾“双碳”目标与经济稳态增长至关重要。以技术效率为内生转化媒介,推导降碳减排与经济增长并行演进的理论机制。进一步以中国省际面板数据实证研究发现:经济产出与碳排放之间存在一定的原生依赖关系,完全“碳脱钩”并不符合中国的现实情境,而技术效率提升为并行推动降碳约束和经济增长提供了内生转化工具。非线性研究还发现:碳排放增速在不同水平时,技术效率提升对经济增长的内生驱动轨迹有所变化,只有合理适度的降碳约束能够撬动技术效率的最佳内生驱动力。此外,降碳约束对技术效率的内生驱动存在时空异质性:过高或过低的碳排放约束在东部地区并不适用,中西部地区需要一定的碳排放容忍度才能释放效率变革与经济增长的共轭红利。研究发现为积极稳妥推进碳达峰碳中和、兼顾经济稳态增长提供了内生转化的理论启示与动态调节的量化依据。

To build socialist modernization comprehensively,it is necessary to explore the inclusive carbon reduction path with Chinese characteristics,and it is essential to give consideration to“dual carbon”goal and steady economic growth.Taking technical efficiency as the endogenous transformation medium,it deduced the theoretical mechanism of the parallel evolution of carbon emission reduction and economic growth.Further empirical research based on Chinese provincial panel data shows that:there is a certain primary dependence between economic output and carbon emissions currently,and“carbon decoupling”does not conform to the reality situation of China,while technical efficiency improvement provides an endogenous transformation tool for carbon reduction constraints and economic growth parallelly.The nonlinear research also finds that:when carbon emission growth rate is at different levels,the endogenous driving track of economic growth is changed due to technical efficiency improvement.Only reasonable and appropriate carbon reduction constraints could leverage the optimal endogenous driving force of technical efficiency.In additionally,the endogenous drive of carbon reduction constraints on technical efficiency is spatiotemporal heterogeneity,excessive or low carbon emission constraints are not applicable in the eastern regions,and the central and western regions need a certain tolerance of carbon emissions to release the conjugate dividend of efficiency change and economic growth.The above findings provide theoretical enlightenment of endogenous transformation and quantitative basis of dynamic regulation,which are helpful to promoting carbon peak and carbon neutralization actively and steadily,as well as giving consideration to steady economic growth.