基于情景的2050年世界能源供需展望分析——基于《bp世界能源展望(2023年版)》

Scenario based analysis on the outlook for global energy supply and demand in 2050-based on bp Energy Outlook(2023 edition)

针对《bp世界能源展望(2023年版)》报告对全球能源供需进行分析和总结。《bp世界能源展望(2023年版)》中统计到2050年,在“快速转型情景”“净零情景”及“新动力情景”中,探索全球能源市场在减少碳排放、向低碳清洁能源转型路径中的发展趋势。分析表明:到2050年前,三种情景下终端能源消费总量均已达到峰值;石油和煤炭需求都呈现下降趋势,全球能源开始逐步向更低碳方向转型;天然气消费量变化趋势差异较大;可再生能源增长速度最快;低碳氢作为低碳清洁能源需求增长强劲;碳排放量下降,碳捕集、利用与封存(Carbon Capture,Utilization and Storage,CCUS)技术发挥核心作用;中国实现“双碳”目标,向低碳清洁能源转型。分析结果可为全球能源转型发展提供参考。

The bp Energy Outlook(2023 edition)provides an analysis and summary for global energy supply and demand and explores,under the scenarios of“rapid transition”,“net zero”,and“new momentum”,the development trends of the global energy market in reducing carbon emissions and transitioning to low-carbon clean energy up to 2050.The analysis shows that,before 2050,total end-user energy consumption will have peaked at all three scenarios,the demand for oil and coal will have declined,and global energy will begin to shift to a lower-carbon future trends;natural gas consumption varies widely;renewable energy is growing at the fastest rate;demand for low-carbon hydrogen,as a low-carbon clean energy source,is experiencing a strong growth.Carbon emissions have decreased,and Carbon Capture,Utilization and Storage(CCUS)technology plays a crucial role.China has achieved the“carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”goals and is transitioning towards low-carbon clean energy.The analysis results can provide reference for global energy transition and development.