全球能源结构性权力时空格局演变及其关键驱动因素

Spatio-temporal evolution and key drivers of global energy structural power

能源作为战略性资源在国家地缘战略中尤为重要,能源结构性权力的角逐业已成为国家间综合国力竞争和能源安全保障的重要内涵。利用联合国跨国投入产出数据对2001—2017年各国的能源结构性权力进行测度,从空间格局、网络组织关系、新增价值分配的视阈来揭示全球能源结构性权力的演化脉络,并识别出权力转移的关键驱动因素。研究表明:①全球能源结构性权力体系呈现出两极分化严重、动荡不稳定特征,能源强国对周边地区不断挤压并产生了大量的破碎地带;②全球能源结构性权力呈现出“东升西降”趋势,并以中美德为主导的“三足鼎立”空间格局。其中能源出口结构性权力不断向中国转移,进口权力则进一步锚固在西欧北美;③全球能源结构性权力合作社团扩散和收缩并存,亚太和东欧社团范围逐渐扩大,西欧和美国社团范围则有所缩减;④全球能源结构性权力“核心—边缘”等级结构存在“双核→三核→多核”的弱化趋势,权力等级圈层间的迭代过程显著;⑤从能源价值流动的核心链条来看,德国、美国为代表的能源结构性权力强国占据链主地位并主导着能源价值的分配,作为跟随和从属的能源小国陷于低端锁定困局。从能源产业链环节的来看,呈现出能源勘探开采和加工销售环节价值较高,运输储存环节价值较低的“微笑曲线”特征;⑥国家高水平能源结构性权力的关键驱动因素从早期的能源禀赋和能源贸易维度逐步向市场资本维度所延展。据此为中国能源结构性权力的巩固提出了政策建议。

As a strategic resource,energy has become essential to national geopolitical strategies competition over energy structural power between states,and has implications for both their state power and energy security.Using the cross-country input-output data collected from the United Nations,we measure the structural power of energy in each country from 2001 through 2017.We evaluate the evolution of global structural power in energy through spatial structure,network,and the distribution of value added and identify the key drivers of its shift.The study shows that(1)The global energy structural power system was increasingly polarized and volatile and conflicts among energy superpowers gave rise to a big number of shatter belts.(2)We saw the rise of the East and the decline of the West in the trend of the global structural energy power,and China,the United States,and Germany are its major leading forces.Specifically,energy exporting power increasingly shifted to China,whereas energy importing power was further centered in West Europe and North America.(3)The associations of global structural engergy power saw both shrinkage and diffusion:they expanded their coverage in the Asia-Pacific and Eastern Europe whereas decreased their coverage in Western Europe and the United States.(4)The hierarchical order of global energy structural power gradually shifed from dual cores,triple cores,to mutiple cores,and the relationship between different hierarchical orders changed drastically.(5)As for the core chain of energy value flow,energy structural superpowers represented by Germany and the United States led the chain and dominated the distribution of energy value,while small nations in energy production serve as followers and subordinates were stuck in low-end industries.The sections of the energy industrial chain exhibited a U-shaped curve in which energy exploration,mining,processing perform relatively high values,whereas transportation and storage produce relatively low values.(6)The key drivers of national energy structural power gradually shifted from early energy endowment and energy trades to market capitals.We propose corresponding policy advice that fosters the consolidation of China's structural energy power.