基于平准化度电净现值模型的轨道交通光伏发电储能一体化项目的经济效益分析

Economic Benefit Analysis of Rail Transit Photovoltaic Power Generation and Energy Storage Integration Project Based on Levelized Net Present Value Model

目的:为了降低轨道交通光伏发电储能一体化项目投资规模,需要构建合理的理论模型对轨道交通光伏发电储能一体化项目的经济效益进行深入研究。方法:基于投资和运营成本、财务成本、税务成本及效益等参数,建立了轨道交通光伏发电储能一体化项目模型。以LCOE(平准化度电成本)模型为基础,建立LNPVE(平准化度电净现值)模型用于分析轨道交通光伏发电储能一体化项目的经济效益。选取某轨道交通光伏发电储能一体化项目为研究对象,计算折现率分别为3%、6%和8%,以及自用消纳比例分别为30%、40%和50%下的平准化度电成本和平准化度电净现值。从经济因素、财务因素、政策因素等方面对轨道交通光伏发电储能一体化项目的经济效益进行了敏感性分析。结果及结论:LNPVE模型表明,轨道交通光伏发电储能一体化项目在现有基础参数下能够实现经济效益;敏感性分析结果表明,影响项目经济效益的因素按重要性程度划分依次是经济因素、政策因素和财务因素,经济因素中最重要的是消纳电价和自用消纳比例,政策因素中最重要的是增值税进项税抵扣优惠,财务因素中最重要的是资本金比率。

Objective:In order to reduce the investment scale of URT(urban rail transit)photovoltaic power generation and energy storage integration projects,it is necessary to construct a reasonable theoretical model to thoroughly investigate the economic benefits of such projects.Method:A model for such projects is established based on parameters including investment and operating costs,financial costs,tax costs,and benefits.Using the LCOE(levelized cost of electricity)model as a foundation,a LNPVE(levelized net present value of electricity)model is developed to analyze the economic benefits of URT photovoltaic power generation and energy storage integration projects.Taking a specific project of this type as the research object,LCOE and LNPVE are calculated for discount rates of 3%,6%,and 8%,and self-consumption rates of 30%,40%,and 50%.Sensitivity analysis is conducted on the economic,financial,and policy factors affecting the economic benefits of the project.Sensitivity analysis is carried out on the economic benefits of the mentioned project from aspects such as economic,financial,and policy factors.Result&Conclusion:The LNPVE model indicates that the mentioned project can achieve economic benefits under the existing parameters.Results of the sensitivity analysis reveal that the factors influencing project economic benefits are ranked by descending importance as economic,policy,and financial factors.Among economic factors,the most significant are the electricity purchase price and self-consumption rate.For policy factors,the most important is the value-added tax input tax deduction incentive.Among financial factors,the most crucial is the capital-to-equity ratio.