国家重大战略叠加效应对长三角城市群的影响研究

Study on the impact of the superimposed effect of national major strategies on the Yangtze River delta city group

国家重大战略作为中国式现代化的“加速器”,对区域发展具有重要的现实意义。采用2012—2020年长江经济带110个地级及以上城市的面板数据,借助双重差分倾向匹配法(PSM-DID),检验多个国家重大战略叠加对区域发展的影响机制。结果表明,国家重大战略叠加能显著促进区域经济发展,但对同一区域内的都市圈影响存在异质性;国家战略叠加效应对其他区域具有潜在的“虹吸效应”。进一步分析影响因素发现,城镇人均消费、工业增加值以及外商投资能够有效促进区域经济发展,而科技创新则具有抑制效应。为此,国家重大战略的制定和实施要兼顾战略协同性及区域发展的异质性,以实现战略叠加效应最大化。

As the“accelerator”of Chinese path to modernization,national major strategies have important practical significance for regional development.Using panel data from 110 prefecture level and above cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2012 to 2020,and using the Dual Difference Tendency Matching Method(PSM-DID),this study examines the impact mechanism of the superposition of major strategies of multiple countries on regional development.The results indicate that the superposition of major national strategies can significantly promote regional economic development,but there is heterogeneity in the impact on urban areas within the same region;The superposition effect of national strategy has a potential“siphon effect”on other regions.Further analysis of the influencing factors reveals that urban per capita consumption,industrial added value,and foreign investment can effectively promote regional economic development,while technological innovation has a inhibitory effect.Therefore,the formulation and implementation of major national strategies should take into account strategic synergy and heterogeneity of regional development,in order to achieve maximum strategic overlap effect.