关于当前中国宏观经济形势和政策的几点思考

Reflections on the Current Macroeconomic Situation and Policies in China

近年来,中国经济增速几乎是逐季下降,但中国经济增速持续下降并非不可避免。实际上,如果中国执行更具扩张性的财政货币政策,并纠正在执行“四万亿”政策时出现的问题,那么在今后若干年,中国完全可能保持较高的经济增速。目前,中国还有相当大的执行扩张性财政货币政策空间,以弥补“总需求不足”。在刺激消费的同时,应该看到扭转中国经济持续下跌趋势的主要出路依然是基础设施投资,包括支持技术创新、产业链重塑和医疗养老设施的投资。执行扩张性财政货币政策不但同体制改革并行不悖而且可以互相促进。如果听任经济增速持续下跌,由于磁滞效应和人口老龄化等因素的累积作用,或者受外部冲击导致通货膨胀率上升,机会窗口就可能会关闭。

In recent years,China's economic growth rate has almost decreased quarter by quarter,but the continuous decline in China's economic growth rate is not inevitable.In fact,if China implements more expansionary fiscal and monetary policies and corrects the problems that arise during the implementation of the"four trillion"policy,then it is entirely possible for China to maintain a relatively high economic growth rate in the coming years.At present,there is still considerable space for China to implement expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to make up for the“insufficient aggregate demand”.While stimulating consumption,it should be noted that the main way to reverse the continuous downward trend of China's economy is still through infrastructure investment,including supporting technological innovation,reshaping the industrial chain,and investing in medical and elderly care facilities.Implementing expansionary fiscal and monetary policies not only goes hand in hand with institutional reform,but also promotes each other.If the economic growth rate is allowed to continue to decline,the opportunity window may close due to the hysteresis effect and the cumulative effects of long-term factors such as aging,or if inflation rates suddenly rise due to external shocks.