基于主成分分析法和熵值法的海岛可持续动态评价研究——以浙江舟山为例

Dynamic evaluation of island sustainability based on the principal component method and entropy method——a case study of Zhoushan,Zhejiang province

海岛可持续研究是实现海岛城市经济发展与环境和资源平衡发展的重要方法,但至今尚未形成合适且普遍使用的一套评价海岛可持续性的方法。本文借鉴已有研究的可持续发展思路,结合海岛生态环境状况,从经济、生态、社会和资源四个方面选取指标,构建海岛可持续发展评价模型,运用主成分分析法对浙江舟山海岛可持续评价指标进行综合分析,并采用熵值法计算各评价指标的权重值,对舟山海岛2003—2017年的可持续状况进行动态评价。结果表明,舟山整体的可持续性在不断提高,可持续分值从2003年的-5.83增至2017年的7.17,其中主要归功于舟山经济发展的不断提升,经济成分是影响可持续状况的关键因素。

The study of island environmental sustainability is important to promote the economic development of island cities and the balanced development of environment and resources,but there is no suitable and widely used method to evaluate island sustainability.Based on the existing sustainable development ideas,combined with the status of island ecological environment,this paper selected indicators from four aspects of economy,ecology,society and resources to construct the evaluation model of island sustainable development.The principal component analysis method was used to comprehensively analyze the ecological environment evaluation index of Zhoushan island in Zhejiang province,and the entropy method was used to calculate the weight value of each evaluation index.The sustainable status of Zhoushan islands from 2003 to 2017 was evaluated dynamically.The results showed that the overall sustainability of Zhoushan was constantly improving,and the sustainable score had increased from-5.28 in 2003 to 7.02 in 2017,which was mainly due to the continuous improvement of Zhoushan's economic development,and the economic composition was the key factor affecting the sustainable situation.