考虑个体异质性的网约车使用行为建模及影响分析

Influence Factor Analysis and Modeling on Taxi-Hailing Behavior Considering Individual Heterogeneity

为了研究出行行为改变的内在机理,在上海市开展了RP(revealed preference)调查,获取了通勤者的社会经济特征、通勤特征和心理感知特征等潜在的网约车使用频率影响因素;采用随机参数有序Probit模型评估了各潜在影响因素中相关变量对网约车使用频率及通勤者个体异质性的影响效果,对关键变量进行了分析。结果表明:年轻群体、中高收入群体、市区住户、中长距离通勤者、认可网约车实惠和安全的通勤者使用网约车较频繁;大部分频繁加班群体和认可网约车舒适便捷的群体网约车使用频率较高,但仍有部分群体较少使用网约车,个体之间存在异质性。研究结论可为城市交通管理政策的设计和网约车发展战略的制定提供参考。

To investigate the underlying mechanisms of changes in travel behavior,a RP survey was conducted in Shanghai,which obtained potential factors affecting the frequency of taxi-hailing usage,such as socio-economic characteristics,commuting characteristics and psychological perception characteristics of commuters.A random parameters ordered Probit model was employed to estimate the impact of relevant variables among these potential influencing factors on taxi-hailing usage frequency and individual heterogeneity,and the key influence factors were analyzed.The results show that the commuters such as young people,middle and upper-income groups,urban residents as well as medium and long-distance commuters who perceive taxi-hailing as cost-effective and safe use taxi-hailing services more frequently.Furthermore,a majority of those who frequently work overtime and those who find taxi-hailing comfortable and convenient also exhibit higher taxi-hailing usage.However,there are still certain groups that use taxi-hailing less frequently,indicating individual heterogeneity within the population.These research findings can provide reference for policy design in urban transportation management and the formulation of strategies for taxi-hailing development.