铁、血、金:铁路对战争与经济发展的影响——以清末民初为例

Iron,Blood and Gold:the Impact of Railroad on War and Economic Development:Evidence from the Late Qing and Early ROC

铁路对经济社会影响深远。既有研究较多关注铁路对于近代经济发展的积极作用,但是较少关注其如何影响社会冲突。本文分析清末至民国时期战争地理的转移,考察了铁路如何成为影响战争分布的关键因素,认为铁路和战争关系的重要调节变量是中央政府控制铁路的能力。本文利用1840—1927年期间中国各府级的铁路修筑和战争冲突面板数据进行实证检验,发现在铁路开通之后,战争的频次相较均值显著上升20%~32%。铁路的战场效应主要体现在中央政府能力较弱的民国初年。由于战争的军事价值和经济价值的实现存在相互替代关系,战争显著降低了所在地区的新设工厂数量,从而部分抵消了铁路对于近代工业化的正面影响。

Existing researches focus more on the positive effects of railroad on modern economic development,but there are few researches on how it affects conflicts.This paper analyzes the geographical shift of war in the late Qing Dynasty and the Republic of China,and examines how railroad became the key factor affecting the distribution of war.An important moderating variable in the relationship between railroads and war was the ability of the central government to control railroads.Based on the panel data of railroad construction and war conflicts in Chinese prefectures from 1840 to 1927,this paper makes an empirical test and finds that the frequency of war increased significantly by 20%—32%compared to the average after railroad construction.The conflict effect of railroads was mainly realized in the early years of the Republic of China when the central government was weak.Since the realization of military value and economic value of war has a mutual substitution relationship,wars significantly reduced the number of new factories in the region,partially offsetting the positive impact of railroads on modern industrialization.