广东省农业碳氮磷排放的时空演变特征与驱动力

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Forces of Agricultural Carbon,Nitrogen,and Phosphorus Emissions in Guangdong Province

温室气体排放导致的气候变化和氮磷富集形成的水体富营养化是当前我国生态环境领域亟需解决的关键问题,农业部门作为碳、氮、磷排放的主要来源之一,解析其时空演变特征与驱动对我国减污降碳战略的实施具有十分重要的意义。本文基于广东省农业部门面板数据,构建了农业源碳排放模型、氮磷流失模型和LMDI(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index)驱动力模型,分析了省级和县级单元农业源各部门的碳、氮、磷排放演变特征与驱动因素。结果表明:(1)广东省县域农业源碳氮磷排放具有显著的空间差异,在空间上具有集聚性、相关性和同源性特征;(2)1990~2021年广东省农业源碳氮磷排放量变化呈现分异性特点,碳排放量上升,氮磷排放量下降,氮磷比呈上升趋势;(3)人均第一产业增加值和单位第一产业增加值排放强度分别是影响广东省农业源碳氮磷排放上升和下降的最大驱动力,且在不同元素之间重要性排序不同,表明控制农业源碳氮磷排放变化的驱动因子存在差异。本文成果将为广东省农业源碳氮磷排放关键源区识别和协同调控提供决策支持。

Climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions and aquatic eutrophication formed by nitrogen and phosphorus enrichment are the key issues that need to be solved urgently in the field of ecological environment in China.The agricultural sector is one of the main sources of carbon,nitrogen,and phosphorus emissions,and analyzing their characteristics and driving forces is of great significance to the implementation of China's pollution reduction and carbon reduction strategy.Based on the cross-sectional data of the agricultural sector in Guangdong province,the carbon emission model,nitrogen and phosphorus runoff model,and the LMDI driver model of agricultural sources in Guangdong province are constructed to analyze the evolution characteristics and driving factors of carbon,nitrogen and phosphorus emissions in each agricultural source sector at the provincial and county levels.The results showed that:(1)the carbon,nitrogen and phosphorus emissions from county agricultural sources in Guangdong province had significant spatial differences,and had the characteristics of concentration,correlation and homology in space;(2)From 1990 to 2021,the carbon and nitrogen emissions from agricultural sources showed heterogeneous changes,carbon emissions increased,nitrogen and phosphorus emissions decreased,and the nitrogen to phosphorus ratio showed an upward trend;(3)Per capita primary industry added value and unit primary industry added value emissions were the largest driving forces affecting the rise and decrease of agricultural carbon,nitrogen and phosphorus emissions in Guangdong province,respectively,and the ranking was different among different elements,indicating that there were differences in the driving factors controlling the change of agricultural source carbon and nitrogen emissions.The results of this study will provide decision-making support for the identification and collaborative regulation of key source areas of agricultural source carbon, nitrogen andphosphorus emissions in Guangdong province.