雾霾污染、企业演化与宏观经济效率——基于中国800毫米等降水线的证据

Haze pollution,enterprise evolution,and macroeconomic efficiency:evidence from the 800-mm isoline in China

利用1998—2013年中国工业企业数据与地级市PM_(2.5)浓度数据,基于中国降水量梯度分布现实,以800mm等降水线两侧PM_(2.5)浓度差异构造准自然实验,研究雾霾污染对企业演化与宏观经济效率的影响,并探讨政府治理对同时实现雾霾减少与宏观经济效率提升的作用。研究发现:PM_(2.5)降低了企业全要素生产率,提高了企业进入概率,降低了企业退出概率,并使企业市场占有率下降。PM_(2.5)通过影响企业成长效应、退出效应及资源配置效应等途径,降低了地区宏观经济效率。在严格的政府治理情境下,雾霾污染的降低可以有效提升宏观经济效率,从而实现雾霾减少与经济发展的双重目标;反之,政府治理强度较弱的地区往往只能以雾霾污染换取经济发展。异质性分析表明,雾霾污染对高污染且易搬迁的企业影响更大,并且对民营企业演化行为具有显著影响。研究结论从经济演化视角揭露了环境保护的重要性,并为政府制定和实施环境保护政策,实现环境保护与经济发展双重目标提供了微观证据。

This paper uses data on industrial enterprises in China and prefecture-level cities'PM_(2.5) concentration from 1998 to 2013.Based on the reality of precipitation gradient distribution in China,this paper constructs a quasi-natural experiment with the PM_(2.5) concentration difference on both sides of the 800-mm isoline to study the impact of haze pollution on enterprise evolution and macroeconomic efficiency.This paper also discusses the role of government governance in haze reduction and macroeconomic efficiency improvement.The results show that PM_(2.5) reduces the total factor productivity of enterprises,improves the entry probability of enterprises,reduces the exit probability of enterprises,and reduces the market share of enterprises.PM_(2.5) reduces regional macroeconomic efficiency by affecting the enterprise growth effect,exit effect,and resource allocation effect.Under strict government control,the reduction of haze pollution effectively improves macroeconomic efficiency,thus achieving the dual goals of haze reduction and economic development.In areas with weak government control,haze pllution can only be exchanged for economic development.Heterogeneity analysis shows that haze pollution has a greater impact on enterprises with high pollution levels and the option of easy relocation;haze pollution also has a significant impact on the evolution behavior of private enterprises.The research findings reveal the importance of environmental protection from the perspective of economic evolution and provide micro evidence for the government to formulate and implement environmental protection policies to achieve the dual goals of environmental protection and economic development.