“二元格局论”再审视:中美“印太”区域经济影响力对比

Reexamining the"China-U.S.Dual Leadership Theory":A Comparative Study of China and the United States on Regional Economic Influence in the Indo-Pacific Economic Structure

本文基于对“二元格局论”的反思,尝试在“印太”视域下从经贸、投资、科技、金融四个维度系统评估了中美两国区域经济影响力对比的现状与发展趋势。本文认为,中美在“印太”经济格局中各擅胜场,地区二元权力格局可能不是反映在经济与安全领域,而更多是反映在经济领域内部。目前中国在贸易领域影响力整体占优,但在个别维度与美国有一定差距;在投资和科技领域影响力与美国差距缩小,在部分维度具有一定比较优势;在金融领域影响力稳步提升,但仍与美国差距悬殊。未来一段时期,中国有望在金融影响力上进一步收窄对美差距,但维持和扩大经贸影响力优势的难度或将加大,在投资和科技领域或与美国竞争更趋激烈,进一步缩小对美差距的阻力和不确定性或显著增加。

Based on the puzzles related to the"China-U.S.Dual Leadership Theory,"this article attempts to conduct a systematic comparative study of China and the United States that evaluates their regional economic influence in the Indo-Pacific economic structure from the four dimensions of trade,investment,technology,and finance.This article argues that China and the United States have their own comparative advantages in the"Indo-Pacific"economic structure,and the regional dual-power structure may not exist in the economic and security fields,but only in the economic field.So far,except for lagging behind the United States in certain dimensions,China overall has occupied a dominant position in trade in the Indo-Pacific economic structure.In the fields of investment and technology,China has remarkably narrowed the gap with the U.S.,and enjoyed certain comparative advantages in several dimensions.However,despite that China has steadily increased its regional financial influence,the gap with the U.S.is still huge.In the near future,China is expected to further narrow the gap with the United States in terms of regional financial influence.However,it might become more difficult for China to maintain and enhance its influence advantage in trade,and its competition with the United States in investment and technology may become even more intense,making it more difficult for China to catch up with the U.S.in these fields.