国内国际双循环视角下中国产业结构转型升级研究

Transformation and Upgrading of China's Industrial Structure from the Perspective of Domestic-International Dual Circulation

在新发展格局下推动产业结构转型升级,需要正确认识国内循环和国际循环各自在其中扮演的角色。本文结合1995—2018年多区域投入产出数据,基于双循环视角构建产业结构变化的结构分解框架,分析了影响中国产业结构转型升级的国内国际因素。研究发现,国内循环变化是中国产业结构转型升级的主要影响因素,国际循环变化有助于产业结构升级,但对产业结构转型的影响不明显。国内循环中,国内价值链结构变化和国内最终需求结构变化使得第一产业占比降低、第三产业占比上升、生产性服务业与实体经济逐渐走向深度融合,推动了产业结构转型和整体升级;但国内价值链结构变化并未带来制造业结构升级,这可能是国内部分高技术领域关键核心技术缺失导致的。国际循环中,国际价值链结构变化在2006年之前和之后分别推动了中国制造业、生产性服务业的相对扩张,带动了整体产业结构升级;国外最终需求结构变化在全球价值链的溢出效应推动下促进了制造业结构升级。因此,本文认为,未来中国的产业结构转型升级应发挥国内循环和国际循环各自作用,统筹发展和安全,从优化需求结构、提升核心技术创新能力、推动高水平开放和加强风险防控等方面发力。

The transformation and upgrading of industrial structure is an important means of promoting the development of contemporaryin idustrial systems and achieving high-quality development.China's internal and external environment is undergoing profound changes,and building a new development pattern has put forward new requirements for the direction of industrial upgrading.Only by correctly understanding the roles of domestic and international circulation can we accurately grasp the path of China's future industrial structure transformation and upgrading.Based on multiregional input-output data from 1995 to 2018,this article constructs a structural decomposition framework of changes in industrial structure from the perspective of the dual circulation,and investigates the domestic and international factors that affect China's industrial structure transformation and upgrading.Unlike previous research,this article distinguishes between the concepts of industrial structure transformation and industrial structure upgrading,and studies the domestic and international factors that affect China's industrial structure transformation and upgrading from the perspective of the dual circulation.It is found that changes in domestic circulation have a significant impact on both industrial structure transformation and upgrading,and changes in international circulation have a minor impact on industrial structure transformation but promote industrial structure upgrading.In domestic circulation,changes in the domestic value chain structure and the domestic final demand structure have resulted in a decrease in the proportion of primary industry,an increase in the proportion of the tertiary industry,and a gradual deep integration of producer services and the real economy,thus promoting the transformation and overall upgrading of China's industrial structure.However,changes in the domestic value chain structure have not led to the upgrading of China's manufacturing structure,which may be due to the lack of core technology links in China hindering the relative growth of high-tech manufacturing.In the international circulation,changes in the international value chain structure have driven the relative expansion of China's manufacturing industry and producer services before and after 2006,thereby driving the overall industrial upgrading;and changes in the foreign final demand structure have driven the relative expansion of high-tech manufacturing industry through the spillover effect of global value chains,thereby promoting the upgrading of manufacturing structure.As a result,this article believes that in the new development pattern,it is necessary to give full play to respective roles of domestic and international circulation,and coordinate development and security by optimizing demand structure,enhancing core technology innovation capabilities,developing an open economy of higher standards,and strengthening risk prevention and control.