RCEP、全国统一大市场与中国区域福利效应

RCEP,National Unified Market and China’s Regional Welfare Effect

构建新发展格局和推动高质量发展要求在推进高水平对外开放的同时,还要促进区域协调发展。为此,本文基于Caliendo和Parro(2015)的模型,探讨了RCEP关税减让对中国国内区域的福利效应,并对该福利效应进行分解。研究发现,RCEP关税减让会促进中国整体经济发展和福利水平的上升,且这主要是由贸易额效应所引致;同时,区域福利分布并不平衡,部分省份由于所面临的出口竞争上升,使得其贸易条件效应下降,并导致福利水平下降。行业福利测算结果显示,RCEP关税减让后受益较大的行业有交通设备、纺织品和服装、机械和电气以及仪表、通用和专用设备等。反事实分析表明,在RCEP关税减让的同时,降低阻碍商品流通和劳动力迁移的壁垒,不仅能够促进中国整体经济发展和福利水平的进一步上升,还能够缩小东部和中西部地区福利水平的差距;但是若仅降低劳动力迁移壁垒,中西部地区特别是中部地区省份的福利水平反而可能因为劳动力流出的增加值效应呈现下降的态势。本文的研究结果表明,紧抓RCEP发展机遇,推动高水平对外开放和建设全国统一大市场的协同并进,有助于增强发展的整体性和协调性。

As a significant milestone in China’s ongoing efforts toward high-level openness,the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement(RCEP)was formally signed in 2020.RCEP aims to strengthen economic and trade cooperation among member countries,presenting new opportunities for China to enhance its level and quality of global engagement.By effectively improving resource allocation capacity in both domestic and international markets,RCEP provides robust support for China’s dual-cycle development strategy.It has been widely acknowledged that RCEP has a positive impact on China’s economy and welfare,expanding the export scale of the manufacturing industry and benefiting consumers through enhanced trade interests.However,most of the existing studies consider China as a whole when exploring the impact of RCEP tariff concessions on China’s welfare level,and only a few studies have explored the welfare effects of RCEP tariff concessions on various regions in China.Due to the differences in the development level,industry composition,and geographical location of different regions in China,the impact of RCEP tariff concessions on different regions may be heterogeneous.Therefore,it is crucial to discuss the welfare effects of RCEP tariff concessions on different regions to gain a comprehensive understanding of their overall impact.Based on this background,this study applies the model of Caliendo and Parro(2015)from the national level to the national-regional level,discusses the welfare effects of RCEP tariff concessions on various provinces in China based on quantitative analysis,and explores the impact of building a national unified market on the above welfare effects by setting different scenarios.The study reveals that a reduction in tariffs will promote the overall economic development and welfare level of China,and this is mainly caused by the trade volume effect.Moreover,the distribution of regional welfare is uneven,and some provinces face increased export competition,which leads to a decrease in their terms of trade effect and a decrease in welfare levels.The industry welfare calculation results reveal that industries that benefit the most after the RCEP tariff reduction include transportation equipment,textiles and clothing,machinery and electrical,as well as instrumentation,general,and specialized equipment.Counterfactual analysis indicates that reducing tariffs and lowering barriers that hinder commodity circulation and labor factor migration can not only promote China’s overall economic development and further increase welfare levels but also reduce the gap in welfare levels between the eastern and central western regions.However,if only the barriers to labor factor migration are reduced,the welfare level of the central and western regions,especially the provinces in the central region,may experience a downward trend due to the value-added effect of labor outflow.The findings of this study have significant implications for China’s utilization of the RCEP agreement to enhance both domestic and international circulation,improve overall and regional welfare,and promote coordinated development across regions.First,China should capitalize on the development opportunities presented by RCEP,fully implement the economic and trade rules outlined in the agreement,and prioritize the reduction and elimination of nontariff barriers as a key strategy for advancing high-level openness.Second,following the implementation of the RCEP agreement,it is crucial for the government to pay closer attention to enhancing the competitiveness of export industries in different provinces and regions of China.Special emphasis should be placed on industries such as general and special equipment,machinery and electrical equipment,instrumentation,and transportation equipment,particularly in the eastern provinces.Lastly,RCEP should be seen as an opportunity to foster regional coordinated development.This can be achieved through a harmonized approach that combines a high level of openness to the global market with the establishment of a unified national market.