乌霍路线旅客城际出行行为分析研究

Analysis and Research on Intercity Travel Behavior of Passengers between Urumqi and Horgos Route

以乌鲁木齐到伊宁的中途出行为背景,应用SP和RP方法开展当地居民出行调查。基于随机效用理论,以旅客对不同出行方式的选择作为因变量,居民个体特征、出行特征作为自变量,方案属性作为协变量,基于MNL模型构建随机参数Logit模型,拟合调查数据并标定参数。结果表明:随机参数Logit模型的拟合优度高于MNL混合模型;旅客偏好选择高铁、自驾,其次为飞机、城际动车;车票价格或出行费用、在途时间与旅客乘车选择负相关,车票价格有显著影响;中途出行时高铁有明显的优势。

Based on the background of travel behavior from Urumqi to Yining,SP and RP methods are used to carry out travel survey of local residents.According to the random utility theory,taking passengers'choice of different travel modes as dependent variables,residents'individual characteristics and travel characteristics as independent variables,and scheme attributes as covariates,a random parameter logit model is constructed based on MNL model to fit the survey data and calibrate the parameters.Results show that the goodness-of-fit of MNT model is higher than that of MNL model;Passengers prefer high-speed rail and self driving,followed by aircraft and intercity bullet trains;Ticket price or travel cost and on-the-way time are negatively correlated with passengers'travel choice,and ticket price has a significant impact;High-speed rail has obvious advantages when traveling halfway.