考虑舒适性的城际旅游交通方式选择意愿研究

A Model of Intercity Yourism Transportation Mode Choice Considering Comfort Under Bounded Rationality

以新疆地区旅行者为例,基于SP调查对城际旅游交通方式选择研究。提出一种舒适性评价方法,运用到累积前景理论参考点的设置中,建立城际旅游交通方式选择模型,并对累积前景理论参数进行重新标定。结果发现:预测选择概率与实际选择概率误差在-1.5%~4.5%以内,验证了累积前景理论模型在城际旅游交通方式研究上的适用性,考虑舒适性参考点设置方法的有效性,以及舒适性评价方法的正确性。

Taking travelers in Xinjiang as an example,this paper studies the choice of intercity tourism transportation mode based on SP survey.This paper proposes a comfort evaluation method,which is applied to the setting of the reference points of the cumulative prospect theory,establishes a mode selection model for intercity tourism,and re-calibrates the parameters of the cumulative prospect theory.The results show that the error between the predicted selection probability and the actual selection probability is within-1.5%~4.5%,which verifies the applicability of the cumulative prospect theory model in the study of intercity tourism transportation modes,considering the validity of the comfort reference point setting method,and the correctness of the comfort evaluation method.