全员劳动生产率视角下人口老龄化对碳排放的影响

Impact of Population Aging on Carbon Emissions From the Perspective of Total Labor Productivity

基于2004~2019年的全国30个省份(西藏缺失数据较多,不包含在内)的面板数据,构建静态面板中介效应模型,从生产角度探讨了人口老龄化对碳排放的影响机制;通过面板门槛效应,发现人口老龄化、全员劳动生产率和碳排放之间的非线性关系,并讨论了各地区间的差异。结果发现,除西部地区,人口老龄化对于碳排放有显著的抑制作用。人口老龄化会通过提高全员劳动生产率促进碳排放,且中部地区的中介效应作用强度大于东部地区。在全国、中部地区和西部地区,均存在劳动生产率对碳排放的老龄化门槛效应。老龄化程度较轻的西部地区全员劳动生产率对碳排放的促进效应最弱。为此,提出了建议:加快技术革新,鼓励产业转型升级,减少在老龄化进程中经济产出增加带来的环境损失。

Based on panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2004 to 2019(excluding Tibet due to missing data),this paper constructs a static panel mediation model to explore the impact mechanism of population aging on carbon emissions from a production perspective.Through panel threshold effects,it reveals a non-linear relationship between population aging,labor productivity,and carbon emissions,and discusses regional differences.The study finds that,except for western regions,population aging has a significant inhibitory effect on carbon emissions.Population aging promotes carbon emissions by increasing labor productivity,and the mediating effect is stronger in the central region than in the eastern region.In the whole country,central region,and western region,there are threshold effects of labor productivity on carbon emissions caused by population aging.The western region,with a lighter degree of aging,exhibits the weakest promotion effect of labor productivity on carbon emissions.The study suggests accelerating technological innovation,encouraging industrial transformation and upgrading,and reducing environmental losses caused by increased economic output during the aging process.