西南地区生态环境—旅游产业—城镇化耦合协调发展研究

Study on the Coupled and Coordinated Development of Ecological Environment,Tourism Industry,and Urbanization in Southwest China

以西南地区为研究对象,构建了生态环境—旅游产业—城镇化协调发展评价指标体系,运用耦合协调模型和灰色预测模型分析预测了西南地区生态环境、旅游产业和城镇化协调关系及演进过程。结果表明:西南地区生态环境—旅游产业—城镇化系统及其子系统综合评价指数呈上升态势,其中旅游产业和城镇化子系统上升幅度明显大于生态环境子系统;西南地区4省市协调度总体表现为平稳上升的良好趋势,其协调水平大致表现为重庆>云南>四川>贵州,其中制约重庆和贵州协调发展的主要因素是旅游产业发展滞后,制约四川和云南协调发展的主要因素是生态环境发展滞后;西南地区4省市协调度将在之后5年稳步提升,其中重庆和云南将在2023年升到优质协调等级;四川和贵州预计将在2024年升到优质协调等级。

Taking the southwestern region as the research object,this paper constructs an evaluation index system for the coordinated development of ecological environment,tourism industry,and urbanization,and uses coupling coordination models and grey prediction models to analyze and predict the coordinated relationship and evolution process of ecological environment,tourism industry,and urbanization in the southwestern region.The results show that the comprehensive evaluation index of the ecological environment tourism industry urbanization system and its subsystems in the southwest region is on the rise,with the tourism industry and urbanization subsystems showing a significant increase compared to the ecological environment subsystem;The overall coordination degree of the four provinces and cities in the southwest region shows a stable upward trend,with a coordination level roughly showing as Chongqing>Yunnan>Sichuan>Guizhou.The main factor restricting the coordinated development of Chongqing and Guizhou is the lagging development of the tourism industry,while the main factor restricting the coordinated development of Sichuan and Yunnan is the lagging development of the ecological environment;The coordination degree of the four provinces and cities in the southwest region will steadily improve in the next five years,with Chongqing and Yunnan rising to the high-quality coordination level in 2023;Sichuan and Guizhou are expected to be upgraded to a high-quality coordination level by 2024.