中国绿色金融发展的时空格局变迁与关联网络演化

Spatial-Temporal Pattern Changes and Associated Network Evolution of China’s Green Finance Development

科学识别绿色金融发展格局的时空变迁并揭示其空间关联结构,是实现绿色金融区域协同发展的前提。采用定基极差熵权法测度2008—2020年中国31个省份的绿色金融指数,随后运用地图可视化、动态核密度估计、标准差椭圆等方法对绿色金融发展的时空格局、重心迁移与离散趋势进行刻画,并引入修正引力模型对省域间绿色金融关联发展强度进行量化,最终运用社会网络分析方法考察了绿色金融发展的空间关联网络及其演化特征。研究表明:第一,绿色金融发展水平逐步提升,中部、西部、东北三大地区间水平差异有所收敛,但与东部的差异依旧明显;绿色金融发展态势稳中向好,持续提升空间较大;绿色金融发展水平呈现“自东向西、由南至北”梯度降低的格局分布,发展重心呈现向西南方向转移的趋势。第二,绿色金融发展空间关联网络密度、连通度与稳定性稳步提升,但整体关联度较低,新疆与西藏被孤立于网络以外,关联发展更多存在于东中部省份之间,中西部省份间关联发展程度较低。第三,东部沿海与中部省份中心度较高,处于网络的核心地位,有着较强的吸收与辐射能力,兼顾扮演“发动机”与“中转站”的角色,有效沟通了东西部间的绿色金融发展;多数省份的“中介”属性逐步弱化,更多省份倾向于产生直接关联。第四,各板块的“角色定位”与省份构成发生变化,现阶段,东部、中部内部省份间绿色金融发展关联紧密,西部、东北内部省份间联动性较弱;联动发展的核心区域由“东部-中东部”向“中东部-西南部”过渡,中东部省份对关联网络的主导作用进一步增强。

Scientifically identifying the spatial and temporal changes in the development pattern of green finance and revealing its spatial association structure are prerequisites for achieving regional coordinated development of green finance.The fixed base range entropy weight method was used to measure the green financial index of 31 provinces in China from 2008 to 2020.Then,the map visualization,dynamic Kernel density estimation,standard deviation ellipse and other methods were used to describe the spatial and temporal patterns,focus shifts and discrete trends of green financial development.Meanwhile,the development intensity of green financial linkages between provinces was quantified with the modified gravity model.Finally,the social network analysis method was used to examine the spatial association network and its evolutionary characteristics of green finance development.Research has found that:Firstly,the development level of green finance is gradually improving,and the level differences between the central,western,and northeastern regions have converged,but the differences from the eastern region are still significant;the development trend of green finance is stable and improving,with significant room for continuous improvement;the development level of green finance shows a gradient decreasing pattern from east to west and from south to north,with the development focus shifting towards the southwest.Secondly,the density,connectivity,and stability of the spatial association network for green finance development have steadily increased,but the overall correlation is relatively low.Xinjiang and Tibet are isolated from the network,and the associated development mainly exists between the eastern and central provinces,while the degree of correlation development between the central and western provinces is relatively low.Third,the eastern coastal and central provinces have a high centrality and are at the core of the network,with strong absorption and radiation capabilities.They play the role of“engine”and“transit station”,effectively communicating the green financial development between the east and the west;the“intermediary”attribute of most provinces is gradually weakening,and more provinces tend to generate direct connections.Fourthly,the“role positioning”and the compositing provinces of each sector have changed.At present,the development of green finance is closely related between provinces in the eastern and central regions,while the linkage between provinces in the western and northeastern regions is weak;the core area of associated development is transitioning from“East-Middle East”to“Middle-East Southwest”,and the leading role of central and eastern provinces in the association network is further enhanced.