突发事件下中蒙跨境物流网络风险评估

Research on the Operational Risk Assessment of China-Mongolia Cross Border Logistics Network in the Event of Emergency

我国是蒙古国最大的进出口贸易国,货物的流通依赖于稳定安全的物流网络,而突发事件的发生会对物流网络造成严重影响。本文基于地级市维度的公路网和口岸节点构建了中蒙跨境物流网络,结合中蒙贸易数据及复杂网络理论,针对突发事件对网络节点、连边的破坏过程进行了网络攻击仿真,从网络的可用性、能控性、网络风险效率和网络损失效率等方面分析了跨境物流网络的运作风险。仿真结果表明,靠近口岸、贸易量较大的节点对于物流网络的稳定运行具有较为关键的作用,同时在保证这些物流节点安全的前提下应重点关注介数较高的连边。

China is the largest import and export trade country of Mongolia.The circulation of goods depends on a stable and safe logistics network,and the occurrence of emergencies will have a great impact on the logistics network.Based on the highway network and port nodes of prefecture level cities,this paper constructs a china-mongolian cross-border logistics network.Combined with the trade data and complex network theory,this paper simulates the destruction process of network nodes and links in emergencies,and the operational risk of cross-border logistics network is analyzed from the aspects of network availability,controllability,network risk efficiency and network loss efficiency.The simulation results show that nodes close to ports and with large trade volume play a key role in the stable operation of the logistics network.At the same time,on the premise of ensuring the safety of these logistics nodes,people should focus on the connection with higher intermediaries.