基于LSTM模型的四川省建筑业电气化率预测研究

Prediction on Electrification Rate of Construction Industry inSichuan Province Based on LSTM Model

伴随着建筑总量的不断攀升,建筑电气化已经成为中国建筑业实现“双碳”目标的关键所在。针对现有文献较少关注建筑电气化率测算和预测的不足,结合建筑电气化率的定义,从建筑业终端电气化率和建筑业终端运行电气化率两个方面构建了测算公式。在完成2010—2020年四川省建筑电气化率测算的基础上,运用长短期记忆模型,对2021—2030年四川省建筑电气化率进行了预测。研究结果可为四川省建筑业电气化水平的评估及其“双碳”方案的实现提供有益参考。

With the continuous increase in the total number of buildings,electrification has become the key to achieving the"dual carbon"goal for construction industry in China.In view of less attention paid to the calculation and prediction of electrification rate of construction industry in the existing literature,the calculation formulas based on the definition of building electrification rate is constructed from two aspects:the terminal electrification rate of construction industry and the terminal operation electrification rate of construction industry.Based on the calculation of electrification rate of construction industry from 2010 to 2020 in Sichuan province,the long short-term memory(LSTM)model is used to predict its electrification rate from 2021 to 2030.The above research can provide useful references for the evaluation of electrification level of construction industry in Sichuan province and the implementation of"dual carbon"plan.