平罗县2000—2019年气候变化对玉米产量的影响研究

Study on the Impacts of Climate Change on Maize Yieldin Pingluo County from 2000 to 2019

选取2000—2019年平罗县地面气象资料、农业气象观测资料及国家统计局平罗县调查队产量数据,分析了玉米生育期气温、降水量、积温、生育期天数的变化趋势,利用相关系数法,研究了气象要素变化和产量的关系。结果表明,2000—2019年平罗县玉米生育期平均气温、平均最低气温呈下降趋势,平均最高气温呈上升趋势;降水量呈增加趋势;稳定通过0℃、10℃、15℃积温均呈下降趋势;各生育期平均日期均比历年最迟日期提前,全生育期日数呈减少趋势,播种期到拔节期日数呈减少趋势,拔节期到成熟期日数呈增加趋势;平罗县玉米平均产量呈增加趋势。≥0℃积温与单产在0.05水平上显著负相关,平均气温、平均最低气温、播种期到收获期天数与单产在0.01水平上显著负相关,平均最高气温、降水量、≥10℃积温、≥15℃积温与单产不相关。

This study analyzed the trends in temperature,precipitation,accumulated temperature,and duration of maize growth stages using surface meteorological data,agricultural meteorological observations,and maize yield data from the Pingluo County Statistical Survey Team from 2000 to 2019.The correlation coefficient method was used to examine the relationship between meteorological elements and maize yield.The results showed that the average temperature and average minimum temperature during the maize growth period in Pingluo County showed a decreasing trend,while the average maximum temperature showed an increasing trend.Precipitation showed an increasing trend.The accumulated temperatures above 0℃,10℃,and 15℃showed a decreasing trend.The average dates of each growth stage were earlier than previous years,and the total duration of the growth period showed a decreasing trend,with a decrease in the number of days from sowing to tasseling and an increase in the number of days from tasseling to maturity. The average maize yield in Pingluo County exhibited an increasing trend. The accumulated temperature above 0 ℃ had a significantly negative correlation with yield at the 0.05 level. The average temperature, average minimum temperature, and the number of days from sowing to harvest had a significantly negative correlation with yield at the 0.01 level. The average maximum temperature, precipitation, accumulated temperature above 10 ℃, and accumulated temperature above 15 ℃ showed no correlation with yield.