美国“印太战略”的实施效果与前景评估

An Assessment of the Effect and Prospect of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy

美国推进“印太战略”具有四个方面的资源优势,即与“印太”地区的长期联系所奠定的历史基础、本国强大综合实力所提供的重要物质基础、“印太”地区复杂的地缘政治生态所创造的外部条件以及参与并赢得大国竞争经历所积累的丰富战略经验。美国“印太战略”在认知层面、政策层面以及战略层面取得了一定进展。首先,美国“印太战略”的提出与推进提升了国内两党对“印太”地区重要性的认识,同时还促进了其他主要国家(或国家集团)对“印太”地区的关注与政策跟进。其次,美国“印太战略”的总体政策架构已经形成并日益完善。再次,美国“印太战略”对被其视为主要竞争对手的中国构成了较大挑战。然而,该战略的推进也面临着六大制约因素。因而,“印太战略”的前景并不完全取决于美国的意志与行动,还取决于其他诸要素的共同作用。

The United States has four resource advantages in advancing its Indo-Pacific Strategy,namely,the historical basis laid by its long-term ties with the Indo-Pacific region,the important material basis provided for by its strong comprehensive strength,the external conditions created by the complex geopolitical ecology in the Indo-Pacific region,and the rich strategic experience accumulated in its long-term strategic competition.The Indo-Pacific Strategy of the United States has made some progress at the cognitive,policy and strategic levels.Firstly,the proposition and promotion of the Indo-Pacific Strategy has enhanced the bipartisan understanding of the importance of the Indo-Pacific region in the United States,and also promoted the attention and policy follow-up of other major countries(or groups of countries)on the Indo-Pacific region.Secondly,the overall framework of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy has been formed and is being improved.Lastly,the US Indo-Pacific Strategy poses a severe challenge to China,which is regarded as its main competitor.However,the promotion of the strategy is also faced with six constraints,namely,the goal positioning of the Indo-Pacific Strategy,the domestic political and economic situation in the United States,the predicament of the US’alliance strategy,the integration degree of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy and the regional strategies pursued by countries in the region,China’s development and response,and the change of the global security situation.The future of the strategy therefore depends not solely on the will and actions of the United States,but also on the combined influence of multiple elements.