基于联防联控机制的反恐资源配置序贯博弈模型

Sequential game model of anti-terrorism resource allocation based on joint prevention and control

针对新时期暴恐袭击事件具有的袭击软目标、个人极端化行为等非常规边界特征,引入攻防的空间拓扑关系量化政府防御盲区,构建了政府反恐力量、暴恐分子和社会公众的序贯博弈模型,分析了不同情景下政民联防联控机制的作用机理与关键影响因素.研究表明,随着政民联防联控范围和目标价值变化,社会公众参与努力水平存在最高临界值;政民联防联控中社会公众努力水平和政府反恐资源配置量表现出动态协作的增减互补关系;政府部门可从提升其防御收益成本特性和降低社会公众承担损失比例两个可控制层面有效防控暴恐威胁.

Considering the unconventional characteristics of terrorist attacks in the new era,such as attacking soft targets and radicalizing individuals,the spatial topological relationship between offense and defense is introduced to quantify the government defense gap.A sequential game model of resource allocation involving the government,the terrorists and the participating citizens is constructed.Furthermore,the mechanism and influence factors of joint prevention and control mechanism under different scenarios are analyzed.The results show that there exists a maximum value for the citizens’efforts as the scope of joint prevention and control and the target value change.There is a complementary increase and decrease for the dynamic cooperative between the citizens’efforts and the government’s resource allocation in the joint prevention and control.The government could effectively prevent and control violent terrorist threats from two aspects:Improving the benefit-cost of defense and reducing the proportion of losses borne by the public.