气候变化对中国东北春麦播种区小麦产量的影响

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WHEAT YIELDS IN SPRING WHEAT SOWING AREAS IN NORTHEAST CHINA

以中国东北春麦区为例,实证分析了1978—2020年生长季积温、降雨和小麦单产的变化趋势,并分别应用一次多项式、二次多项式和柯布道格拉斯生产函数模拟了气候因素(尤其是积温)对小麦产量的影响。研究结果表明小麦单位面积产量和积温存在显著的升高趋势,而降雨的时间变化趋势并不明显;在对小麦产量和积温变量进行平稳化处理后发现,二次多项式可以更好地模拟天气因素对小麦产量的影响,且在近50年来积温对小麦产量存在显著的负向影响,而降雨对小麦产量的影响并不显著。研究认为气候变暖导致积温升高,从而对小麦产量产生不利影响。为规避积温升高对小麦产量的负面影响,建议开发抗高温小麦品种,调整播期,以及开发金融衍生品或指数保险等方式应对气候变化风险。通过定量分析气候变化对作物产量的影响机制,并提出针对性对策建议,为研究气候变化影响及适应对策提供了重要借鉴。

This paper empirically analyses the trends of cumulative temperature,rainfall and wheat yield per unit area in the growing season during the period 1978-2020 in the spring wheat area of Northeast China as an example,and simulates the effects of climatic factors,especially cumulative temperature,on wheat yield by applying the quadratic equation,the quadratic equation,and the Cobb-Douglas production function,respectively.The results of the study show that there is a significant increasing trend in the yield per unit area of wheat and cumulative temperature,while the temporal trend of rainfall is not obvious;after smoothing the wheat yield and cumulative temperature variables,it is found that the quadratic function can better simulate the effect of weather factors on wheat yield,and there is a significant negative effect of cumulative temperature on wheat yield in the past 50 years,while the effect of rainfall on wheat yield is not significant.The study concludes that warming of the climate leads to an increase in cumulative temperature,which in turn adversely affects wheat yield.In order to hedge against the negative effect of higher cumulative temperature on wheat yield,this study suggests the development of high-temperature resistant wheat varieties,adjustment of sowing schedules,and development of financial derivatives or index insurance to cope with climate change risks.By quantitatively analysing the impact mechanism of climate change on crop yields and proposing targeted countermeasures,this study provides an important reference for the study of climate change impacts and adaptation.