考虑水土匹配的黄河流域农业碳排放时空分异研究

Spatial and Temporal Variation of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in the Yellow River Basin Considering Soil and Water Matching

为了给黄河流域农业绿色低碳发展和高质量发展提供参考,在考虑水土匹配因素的基础上,采用碳排放系数法对2010—2020年黄河流域九省(区)农业碳排放量进行测算,采用Kaya恒等式和LMDI分解模型对黄河流域农业碳排放变化量各影响因素的贡献进行分解,结果表明:1)2010—2020年黄河流域农业水土匹配度呈波动上升趋势,其时空差异较大;2)黄河流域农业碳排放量在2010—2017年呈增大趋势,2018—2020年大幅度下降,各省(区)农业碳排放量差异较大;3)从流域整体来看,农业碳排放的主要驱动因素是农业水资源经济产出、主要抑制因素是农业碳排放强度,各省(区)农业碳排放的主要驱动因素和主要抑制因素有所不同;4)水土资源利用与农业碳排放密切相关,农业水土匹配度和农业水资源经济产出在不同年份、不同省份对农业碳排放的影响具有正负不定的波动性,其原因有待进一步研究。

In order to provide reference for the green,low⁃carbon and high⁃quality development of agriculture in the Yellow River Basin,this paper used the carbon emission coefficient method to calculate the agricultural carbon emissions of nine provinces(autonomous regions)in the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2020 on the basis of considering the matching factors of water and soil.Kaya identity and LMDI decomposition model were used to decompose the contribution of each influencing factor to the change of agricultural carbon emissions in the basin.The results show that a)the agricultural water⁃soil matching degree in the Yellow River Basin shows a fluctuating upward trend from 2010 to 2020,and its spatial and temporal differences are larger;b)The agricultural carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin show an increasing trend from 2010 to and decreasing significantly from 2018 to 2020.There are great differences in agricultural carbon emissions among provinces(autonomous regions);c)From the perspective of the basin as a whole,the main driving factor of agricultural carbon emissions is the economic output of agricultural water resources and the main inhibiting factor is the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions.The main driving factor and the main inhibiting factor of agricultural carbon emissions are different in each province(autonomous region);d)The use of water and soil resources is closely related to agricultural carbon emissions,the effects of agricultural water⁃soil matching degree and agricul⁃tural water resources economic output on agricultural carbon emissions are positive and negative in different years and provinces and the reasons need to be further studied.