考虑城市-水库整体风险的汛限水位调整方法研究

Research on the Adjustment Method of Flood Limit Water Level Considering the Overall Risk of City⁃Reservoir

针对城市化发展造成水库职能变化的背景下水库汛限水位设置不合理的问题,通过建立通用的优选指标体系,采用基于熵权细化主观权重的指标权重确定方法,构建了综合考虑水库防洪风险和城市供水风险的汛限水位调整方案模糊优选模型。该模型在考虑决策者不同偏好的基础上,根据模糊理论中最大隶属度原则进行方案优属度的计算,从而确定最佳调整方案,并以郑州市尖岗水库为例进行了汛限水位的优化调整。结果表明:在拟定的6个汛限水位方案中,当决策者对防洪目标、供水目标具有不同的偏好时,如两者重要度之比为6∶4、4∶6,则最优汛限水位方案分别为151.35、151.55 m。

In view of the unreasonable setting of reservoir flood limit water level under the change of reservoir function caused by the development of urbanization,through the establishment of a comprehensive and general optimization index system,the index weight determination method based on entropy weight refinement subjective weight,a fuzzy optimization model of flood limited water level adjustment scheme considering reservoir flood control risk and urban water supply risk was built.On the basis of considering the different preferences of decision makers,the model calculated the optimal membership degree of the scheme according to the principle of maximum membership degree in fuzzy theory,thus determined the best adjustment scheme and optimized the flood limit water level by taking Jiangang Reservoir in Zhengzhou as an example.The results show that among the six flood limited water level schemes,when the decision makers have different preferences for flood control objectives and water supply objectives,If the ratio of importance is 6∶4 and 4∶6,the optimal flood limit water level scheme is 151.35 and 151.55 m respectively.