基于MCI指数的干旱灾害综合风险指标的构建及风险区划

Construction of Drought Comprehensive Risk Index and Risk Regionalization Based on MCI Index

利用西藏青稞主要种植区产量资料、生育期资料和气象资料,建立了适用于西藏青稞主要种植区干旱灾害风险评估的致灾因子危险性指数模型、承灾体暴露性指数模型、承灾体易损性指数模型、抗旱指数模型和相应的指标体系,并构建了西藏青稞主要种植区干旱灾害综合风险评估模型,在此基础上进行干旱灾害风险评估及区划,同时利用历史旱灾发生频次资料验证了MCI指数和干旱灾害综合风险指标。结果表明:基于MCI指数构建的致灾因子危险性指数模型在西藏青稞主要种植区适用性较好;干旱灾害综合风险整体呈现中间低、两边高的态势,高风险区集中在研究区西部,次高和中等风险区分布在尼木、贡嘎、错那、芒康等地,次低风险区主要集中在昌都市和山南市中部、察隅等地,低风险区集中在林芝市大部、昌都市西部、山南市东部边缘地区。

Based on the yield data,growth period data and meteorological data of the main highland barley planting areas in Tibet,the hazard index model of the disaster factors,the exposure index model of the disasterbearing body,the vulnerability index model of the disaster-bearing body,the drought-resistance index model and the corresponding index system applicable to the drought disaster risk assessment of the main highland barley planting areas in Tibet were established,and the comprehensive risk assessment model of the drought disaster in the main highland barley planting areas in Tibet was constructed.On this basis,the risk assessment and zoning of drought disasters were carried out,and the MCI index and comprehensive risk index of drought disasters were verified by using the historical drought frequency data.The results showed that the hazard index model of hazard factors based on MCI index had good applicability in the main highland barley planting areas in Tibet.The comprehensive risk of drought disaster was generally low in the middle and high on both sides.The high risk areas were concentrated in the west of the study area.The secondary high and medium risk areas were distributed in Nimu,Gongga,Sana,Mangkang and other places.The secondary low risk areas were mainly concentrated in Changdu,the middle of Shannan City,Chayu and other places.The low risk areas were concentrated in most of Linzhi City,the west of Changdu City,and the eastern edge of Shannan City.