国际大循环演进、国内循环扩张与全球经济增长

Evolution of International Circulation, Expansion of DomesticCirculation and Global Economic Growth

探究全球经济大循环的历史演进规律对于深入理解新发展格局意义重大。在现有GDP分解模型基础上,进一步考察GDP所涉及的区位、最终产品需求的去向等因素,对1965-2020年间全球经济大循环分别从国家、行业层面根据静态、动态视角进行内外循环分解。主要结论如下:一是1965-2018年国际大循环比例在缓慢提高,2018年已达到23.43%,其中复杂国际大循环起主导作用。二是全球经济的增长动力主要来自内循环,1991-2007年国际大循环对全球经济增长的贡献率最高,接近30%,其中复杂国际大循环可以解释的比例约66%。三是样本期内,经济增长的产业动力主要来自服务业内循环,1991-2007年服务业内循环拉动全球经济增长的贡献率为61.44%,并且制造业外循环拉动全球经济增长的贡献大于制造业内循环。四是2000年之前,全球经济增长的内循环动力主要来自美国、日本等后工业化大国,金融危机之后,中国内循环成为全球经济增长的最大推动力。

It is of great significance to explore the historical evolution of the global economic circulation for a deeper understanding of the new development paradigm.Based on the existing GDP decomposition model,this paper further examines the location involved in GDP and the direction of demand for final products,and decomposes the global economic circulation from the static and dynamic perspectives of countries and industries respectively from 1965 to 2020.The main conclusions are as follows:The proportion of international circulation in the global economy has increased slowly from 1965 to 2018,and reached 23.43%in 2018,in which complex international circulation plays a leading role.The driving force of global economic growth mainly comes from internal circulations.From 1991 to 2007,the contribution rate of international major cycles to global economic growth was the highest,approaching 30%,of which complex international major cycles accounted for about 66%.During the sample period,the industrial driving force of economic growth mainly comes from the service industry circulation.From 1991 to 2007,the contribution rate of the service industry circulation to global economic growth was 61.44%,and the contribution of the manufacturing industry external circulation to global economic growth was greater than that of the manufacturing industry internal cycle.Before 2000,the internal circulation of global economic growth mainly came from the United States,Japan and other post-industrial countries.After the financial crisis,China's domestic circulation became the biggest driving force of global economic growth.