《中国-东盟服务贸易协议》第二批承诺的贸易效应评估

Evaluation on the Trade Effect of the Second Package Commitments of ASEAN-China Agreement on Trade in Services

基于中国与东盟10国双边服务贸易数据,测算服务贸易壁垒指数,运用合成控制法考察《中国-东盟服务贸易协议》第二批承诺对双边服务贸易的影响。研究发现:第二批承诺的贸易正效应存在但较低,高于第一批;国别和部门贸易效应异质性较大,服务贸易落后的国家和开放度较低的部门在协议实践中受益更多;国内管制、经济、社会和文化差异形成的隐形壁垒制约了贸易效应的发挥。

Based on the data of bilateral service trade between China and 10 ASEAN countries,this paper measures service barriers index and evaluates the impact of the second package commitments of ASEAN-China Agreement on Trade in Services on service trade promotion between China and ASEAN countries by using synthetic control method.It is found that the trade effect is positive and higher than the first package,and its heterogeneity is apparent among countries and sectors,which indicates countries that lagging on service trade and sectors with lower openness benefit more from the second package.The discrepancy in domestic regulation,economy,society and culture form invisible barriers that constrain the trade effect.