政府补助、财务分析师与企业R&D创新——基于财务分析师跟踪强度与预测偏差度的视角

Government subsidies,financial analysts and enterprise R&D innovation——From the perspective of financial analyst tracking intensity and prediction bias

基于我国沪深A股上市企业2015—2019年的非平衡面板数据,从创新投入的数量和质量角度综合考察政府补助对上市企业R&D创新的影响,以及财务分析师对两者关系的调节作用。结果表明:(1)政府补助与企业R&D创新显著正相关,即政府补助能有效提升企业R&D投入和R&D产出水平;并且这种激励效应主要集中在国有企业和大型企业中。(2)财务分析师跟踪强度对政府补助与企业R&D创新之间的正相关关系具有显著的正向调节作用。财务分析师跟踪强度的增加,导致其出具的预测报告与企业真实经营情况之间存在偏差,财务分析师跟踪预测偏差度会稀释财务分析师的信息中介和外部治理作用,即财务分析师预测偏差度对政府补助与企业R&D创新之间的正相关性具有显著的负向调节作用。据此,为相关部门优化资本市场中介机构、促进上市企业R&D创新提供政策制定依据。

Based on the unbalanced panel data of A-share listed companies in China's Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2015 to 2019,this article comprehensively examines the specific impact of government subsidies on RD innovation activities of listed companies from two different dimensions:the quantity and quality of enterprise innovation investment,as well as the moderating effect of financial analysts on the relationship between government subsidies and enterprise RD innovation activities from the perspectives of tracking intensity and prediction bias.The following conclusions are drawn through empirical model validation:(1) There is a significant positive correlation between government subsidies and corporate RD innovation activities,that is,the more government subsidies a company receives,the more it invests in corporate RD innovation activities and the higher the level of RD output(government subsidies can effectively improve the level of corporate RD investment and RD output);And this incentive effect is mainly concentrated in state-owned enterprises and large enterprises.(2) The tracking intensity of financial analysts has a significant positive moderating effect on the positive correlation between government subsidies and corporate RD innovation activities.However,as the tracking intensity of financial analysts increases,there is a deviation between their forecast reports and the actual operating situation of the enterprise.The deviation degree of financial analysts' tracking predictions will dilute the information intermediary and external governance role of financial analysts,that is,the deviation degree of financial analysts' predictions has a significant negative moderating effect on the positive correlation between government subsidies and enterprise RD innovation activities.This study deepens the relationship between government subsidies and corporate RD innovation activities,and adds empirical evidence from financial analysts on the impact of government RD innovation activity subsidies.It provides a policy formulation basis for relevant departments to optimize capital market intermediaries and promote RD innovation activities of listed enterprises.