中部地区高铁可达性演变对区域经济的空间效应研究

Research on the Spatial Effect of High-speed Rail Accessibility Evolution on Regional Economy in Central China

为探究中部地区高铁可达性演变规律,促进地区经济高效协调发展,基于2009—2021年高铁时刻表,考虑列车通行时间、类型与数量3个影响因素构建综合可达性模型,并将其与传统最短时间可达性模型对比,明确两种可达性的差异;然后将两种可达性分别作为核心解释变量,建立空间杜宾模型,分析其对经济发展的空间效应。研究表明:综合可达性呈现“核心-边缘”演变特征,其计算值在12年间由711.480降至292.040,时空压缩效应明显;两种可达性平均差异率在12年间增加2.3倍,差异愈加显化;两种可达性对经济发展都存在正向的直接效应和间接效应,但间接效应大于直接效应,经济发展受邻近地区可达性的影响更大;最短时间可达性的间接效应小于综合可达性,可达性提升过快会强化对周边地区经济发展的虹吸效应。

In order to explore the evolution law of high-speed rail accessibility in the central regions of China and promote the efficient and coordinated development of regional economy,based on the high-speed rail timetable from 2009 to 2021,a comprehensive accessibility model was constructed considering three influencing factors of train transit time,type and quantity,and it was compared with the traditional shortest time accessibility model to clarify the difference between the two accessibility.Then,the two kinds of accessibility were used as the core explanatory variables,and the spatial Dubin model was established to analyze its spatial effect on economic development.The research showed that the comprehensive accessibility presents the evolution characteristics of"core-edge",and its calculated value decreases from 711.480 to 292.040 during the 12 years,and the space-time compression effect is obvious.The average difference rate of the two accessibility increased by 2.3 times during the 12 years,and the difference became more obvious.Both kinds of accessibility have positive direct and indirect effects on economic development,and the indirect effects are more significant than the direct effects.Economic development is more affected by the accessibility of neighboring regions.The indirect effect of the shortest time accessibility is less significant than that of comprehensive accessibility.The rapid improvement of accessibility will strengthen the siphon effect on the economic development of the surrounding areas.