庞氏分红行为、有息债务规模与破产风险

Ponzi Dividend Behavior,Interest-Bearing Debt Scale and the Risk of Corporate Bankruptcy

通过对2009—2020年沪深A股非金融上市公司的数据进行研究,以自由现金流和实际分红金额为标准界定“庞氏分红”行为,同时以股东当年投入现金流量净额(不考虑股利发放和股票回购情况)和债权人当年投入现金流量净额为参考指标,判断“庞氏分红”行为的严重程度,探究“庞氏分红”行为和公司破产风险之间的关系。实证结果表明:“庞氏分红”行为会增加上市公司的破产风险;“庞氏分红”程度越严重,破产的风险越大;有息债务规模发挥了中介效应作用。

Through the study of the data of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share non-financial listed companies from 2009 to 2020,the"Ponzi dividend"behavior was defined with free cash flow and actual dividend amount as standards.Meanwhile,the net cash flow invested by shareholders(regardless of the dividends and share repurchases)in the current year and the net cash flow invested by creditors in the year are used as reference indicators to judge the severity of"Ponzi dividend"behavior and explore the relationship between"Ponzi dividend"behavior and corporate bankruptcy risk.The empirical results showed that"Ponzi dividend"behavior will increase the bankruptcy risk of listed companies;the more serious the degree of"Ponzi dividend",the greater the risk of bankruptcy;the scale of interest-bearing debt plays a mediating role.