基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的电力负荷预测应用研究

Research on the Application of Grey GM(1,1)Model in Power Load Forecasting

电力负荷预测是电力系统最重要的基本工作之一。能够精准、科学的进行电力负荷预测,是保障电力系统安全稳定的运行、国家电网优化配置与建设,对提高国民经济发展、降低发电成本等具有重要意义[1]。本文对当前传统的灰色系统预测模型进行了简单介绍,并作出分析比对,提出所存在的问题。针对逐年增长的城市用电量需求,对电力负荷预测技术深入研究,提出一种预测精度更高的改进型GM(1,1)预测模型[2]。该模型主要用于中小型城市用电量预测,结果表明,该模型可以提高对于中长期电力负荷的精准度预测。本文可为电力系统工作人员进行年用电量预测提供理论参考方法。

Power load forecasting is one of the most important basic tasks in the power system.Being able to accurately and scientifically predict power load is of great significance for ensuring the safe and stable operation of the power system,optimizing the configuration and construction of the national power grid,improving national economic development,and reducing power generation costs.This article provides a brief introduction to the current traditional grey system prediction model,analyzes and compares it,and proposes the existing problems.In response to the increasing demand for urban electricity consumption year by year,in-depth research has been conducted on power load prediction technology,and an improved GM(1,1)prediction model with higher prediction accuracy has been proposed[2].This model is mainly used for predicting electricity consumption in small and medium-sized cities,and the results show that it can improve the accuracy of predicting medium to long-term electricity loads.This article can provide theoretical reference methods for power system workers to predict annual electricity consumption.