中国沿海城市群减污降碳协同增效时空演变及影响因素

Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Synergy in Pollution and Carbon Reduction in China's Coastal Urban Agglomerations

在梳理减污降碳协同增效内涵基础上,构建其综合评价指标体系,采用改进Topsis模型测度城市群2010—2019年减污降碳协同增效指数,结合空间自相关分析、复合系统协同度模型及回归模型,探讨城市群减污降碳协同增效时空演变规律、协同发展水平及其影响因素。结果表明:1)2010—2019年,三大城市群减污降碳增效呈稳定增长趋势,具有不同空间分布格局;2)京津冀城市群空间关联特征由随机性分布向规律化分布转变;长三角城市群城市间减污降碳协同增效合作机制有待加强;珠三角城市群城市对周边城市辐射带动作用逐渐增强,三大城市群城市局部空间集聚不明显;3)2010—2019年,减污降碳协同增效系统有序度呈明显增长趋势;复合系统协同度整体较低,增长速度为长三角城市群>京津冀城市群>珠三角城市群;空间上呈现出不同的演化与关联特征,城市群内部不协调;4)经济发展、环境污染、环境治理、生态保护和资源利用是三大城市群减污降碳协同增效演变的重要影响因素。

China has entered a critical period of economic transformation and rapid development.In this context,it is important to promote the coordinated emission reduction of carbon dioxide and environmental pollutants,transformation of the economic growth model,realization of the"double carbon"goal,and high-quality economic development.Within the framework of the synergy of pollution and carbon reduction,we constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system and used the improved TOPSIS model to measure the synergy index of pollution and carbon reduction in urban agglomerations within the period from from 2010 to 2019.Combined with spatial autocorrelation analysis,a composite system synergy model,and a regression model,the spatial and temporal evolution laws and collaborative development level of the synergy of pollution and carbon reduction in urban agglomerations were analyzed,and the factors influencing the synergy between pollution and carbon reduction were explored.Following conclusions were drawn from the results.(1)From 2010 to 2019,the synergistic effect of pollution and carbon reduction in three major urban agglomerations showed a steady growth trend,with different spatial distribution patterns.The synergistic index of pollution and carbon reduction in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration shows an overall upward trend,that in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration shows a steady fluctuation,and that in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration shows a slow growth trend.(2)The spatial correlation characteristics of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration change from random to regular distributions,and the synergistic cooperation mechanism of pollution and carbon reduction among cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration needs to be strengthened.The radiation and driving effect of the cities in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration on the surrounding cities is gradually increasing,and the local spatial agglomeration of these three major urban agglomerations is not evident.(3)From 2010 to 2019,the order degree of the synergistic system of pollution and carbon reduction showed a significant growth trend;the overall synergy degree of the composite system is low,and the growth order of the urban agglomerations is as follows:Yangtze River Delta>Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei>Pearl River Delta.Different evolution and correlation characteristics are observed in space,and no internal coordination of urban agglomerations is seen.(4)Economic development,environmental pollution,environmental governance,ecological protection,and resource utilization are important factors affecting the synergistic evolution of pollution and carbon reduction in the three aforementioned major urban agglomerations.This study analyzed the connotation requirements and specific characteristics of the synergy between pollution and carbon reduction in such agglomerations in the coastal areas of China.Based on the analysis of the spatial and temporal evolution and influencing factors of the synergy of pollution and carbon reduction in these agglomerations,we aim to address the problems existing in the synergy of pollution and carbon reduction in urban agglomerations.Corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to provide an empirical reference for the realization of comprehensive green and low-carbon transformation and high-quality green development of urban economies and societies.