中小流域暴雨洪水计算及参数地理综合研究进展

Storm and Flood Prediction and Progress in Parameter Synthesis Research in Small and Medium-Sized Watersheds

中小流域暴雨洪水计算及其参数综合在洪水灾害防治中起着关键作用。变化环境引发暴雨洪水等水文极值增加,中小流域暴雨洪水灾害面临严峻挑战。文章对中小流域暴雨洪水计算全过程及参数综合研究进展进行系统回顾、梳理和总结,并对目前常用的产汇流计算方法及其参数在实际应用中存在的问题和局限性进行探讨。流域下垫面和暴雨特性的空间异质性大,产流损失根据其地理特征形成以经验和半经验方法为主的计算方法;汇流计算以推理公式和单位线法为主,流域地形地貌汇流特征能基本反映,但流域形状和微地形在当前计算方法中反映甚少;当前使用的参数成果均由20世纪80年代前的数据得到,限于资料精度和技术水平,参数综合要素较为简单,多地出现不适用现象,亟需开展新一轮的暴雨洪水计算参数综合;在中小流域暴雨洪水过程模拟及实时预报上,结合雷达测雨、高分辨率遥感、高性能计算和深度学习等技术方法的研究已初具规模,建议加强利用新兴技术计算流域产汇流参数,推进其在暴雨洪水设计上的应用。

The prediction of rainstorms and floods in small and medium-sized watersheds,as well as the synthesis of related parameters,plays a pivotal role in preventing flood disasters.Environmental changes have led to an increase in hydrological extremes such as rainstorms and floods,presenting unprecedented challenges for small and medium-sized river basins.In this review,we systematically categorize,and summarize the processes involved in predicting rainstorms and floods in these watersheds,along with advancements in correlated parameter synthesis research.Furthermore,we analyze and discuss the most commonly employed runoff and confluence estimation methods and their associated parameters in practical applications,as well as their limitations.First,we establish the concept of small-and medium-sized watersheds across various academic disciplines.From a hydrological perspective,these watersheds typically exhibit slope confluence and have relatively small catchment areas.In terms of eco-hydrology,the ecological water demand of the basin must be calculated based on the different communities occupying the river basin and divided by area according to the ecological samples from each district after the investigation.Thereafter,we summarized the methods and types of runoff calculation and parameter synthesis in small-and medium-sized basins,and the methods and principles of runoff analysis,such as rainfall–runoff correlation diagram,infiltration curve method,deduction method,runoff coefficient method,and hydrological model method as well as the methods of parameter synthesis,such as rainfall-runoff correlation diagrams and loss methods are introduced.Second,we summarize and discuss the assessment of confluence and its associated parameters in small-and medium-sized river basins.This encompasses background information and various calculation methods,such as the instantaneous unit line,comprehensive unit line,inference formula method,and empirical formula method.We also examine how the three major elements of parameter synthesis convergence influence confluence parameters.We emphasize that combining radar rainfall measurements,high-resolution remote sensing,high-performance computing,and deep learning can facilitate research on simulating and forecasting rainstorms and flood processes in small-and medium-sized basins.However,a significant portion of these basins lacks data,limiting the application of simulation and flood forecasting.To address this,integration with geographical parameters specific to small-and medium-sized basins is necessary to enhance regional reliability and forecasting accuracy.Additionally,when applying deep learning to simulate basins with limited or no data,the significance of parameter synthesis becomes even more pronounced.Finally,we discuss the problems and challenges associated with storm flood calculations and parameter synthesis methods in small-and medium-sized basins and offer predictions regarding future research and technical developments.We recommend strengthening the use of emerging technologies for watershed runoff and runoff parameter calculations and advocate for their application in storm flood design.