基于SCS模型的堰塞湖入库流量快速预报技术实践

Practice of Rapid Inflow Forecasting Technique for Barrier Lakes on SCS Model

堰塞湖入库流量预报有可用水文资料少,预报时效要求高的特点,为满足堰塞湖入库流量预报要求,支撑堰塞湖的应急抢险工作,本文将SCS模型应用于堰塞湖入库流量预报,在DEM数据、土地利用数据、土壤类型数据的复合处理基础上,读取堰塞湖区域空间特征信息,给出SCS模型CN参数初始值,不需要参数率定即可自动建模。通过舟曲堰塞湖入库预报模拟,表明可通过有限流量测点反馈,实现CN值快速优选,从而提高堰塞湖入库流量的预报精度。

The barrier lake inflow forecast has the characteristics of limited availability of hydrological data and high requirements for timeliness.In order to meet the requirements of inflow prediction and support emergency rescue work for barrier lake.This paper applies the SCS model to predicttheinflowforbarrierlake.Based on the composite processing of DEM data,land use data and soil type data,and by reading the spatial characteristic information of the barrier lake area,the initial value of the SCS model CN parameter is given,the model can be automatically modeled without parameter calibration.Through Zhouqu barrier lake inflow forecast simulation.It is shown that CN value can be quickly optimized through feedback from limited flow measurement points.This improves the accuracy of inflow forecastforbarrier lakes.