长江经济带水-能源-粮食系统耦合时空动态特征研究

Spatio-temporal dynamic characteristics of water-energy-food coupling in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

水、能源和粮食为可持续发展的基础性资源,如何从时空角度全面评价长江经济带水-能源-粮食系统的耦合协调发展是促进区域资源可持续发展的重要前提。以水、能源、粮食以及共生单元水能、水粮和能粮系统为单元,构建水-能源-粮食系统耦合协调评价指标体系,采用熵值法对各系统指标赋权,运用耦合协调度模型和空间自相关分析对2010—2019年长江经济带的水-能源-粮食系统协调发展和时空动态特征进行定量研究。结果表明:2010—2019年长江经济带水-能源-粮食系统综合评价指数整体呈缓慢增长趋势,其中水系统对水-能源-粮食系统综合评价指数贡献最大,年均贡献占比为21.57%;能源系统贡献最小,占比为11.95%;2010—2019年长江经济带水-能源-粮食系统耦合协调水平呈先升后降趋势,其中四川省上升幅度为5.05%,重庆市下降幅度为2.83%,且存在显著的空间异质性,上游地区明显高于中下游地区。其中能源资源是水-能源-粮食系统耦合协调发展的短板;长江经济带水-能源-粮食系统耦合协调度表现出显著空间关联性,高-高集聚区集中在长江上游地区,下游地区主要以低-低集聚区为主。长江经济带内各省市应因地制宜地完善资源管理机制,推动长江经济带资源可持续发展。

Water,energy and food are fundamental resources for sustainable development.How to comprehensively evaluate the coupling and coordinated development of the water-energy-food system in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from temporal and spatial perspectives is very important for promoting the sustainable development of regional resources.Here,the water-energy-food system coupling coordination evaluation index system was constructed taking water,energy,food and the symbiotic units of water-energy,water-food and energy-food system as input units,each index was weighted by entropy method,and then the coupling coordination model and spatial autocorrelation analysis was used to quantitatively study the coordinated development of the water-energy-food system and the spatio-temporal dynamic characteristics of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2010 to 2019.The results show that the comprehensive evaluation index of the water-energy-food system in the Yangtze River Economic Belt showed a slow growth trend as a whole from 2010 to 2019,among which the water system contributed the most to the comprehensive evaluation index of the water-energy-food system,with an average annual contribution of 21.57%;the energy system contributed the least,which was only accounted for 11.95%.Whereas the coupling and coordination level of the water-energy-food system in the Yangtze River Economic Belt increased first then decreased,among which Sichuan Province increased by 5.05%,Chongqing City decreased by 2.83%,and the distribution presented significant spatial heterogeneity,with the upper reaches significantly higher than the middle and lower reaches.Among the units,energy resources was the weak point of water-energy-food system coupling and coordinated development.The coupling and coordination degree of water-energy-food system in the Yangtze River Economic Belt showed a significant spatial correlation,the high-high agglomerations distributed in the upper reaches,whereas the low-low agglomerations are mainly in the lower reaches.It is suggested that the provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt should improve their resource management mechanisms according to local conditions,so as to promote the sustainable development of resources in the belt.