Risk Assessment of Debris Flows Along the Karakoram Highway (Kashgar‑Khunjerab Section) in the Context of Climate Change

The Karakoram highway(KKH)is renowned for its complex natural environment and geological conditions.The climate changes drastically and directly infuences the frequency and magnitude of debris fows in this region,resulting in signifcant casualties and economic losses.However,the risk assessment of debris fows along the KKH in the context of climate change has been rarely explored.Therefore,in this study we used the debris fow data,historical meteorological data and future climate prediction data to assess the debris fow risk of the study region during the baseline period(2009–2018),2025s(2021–2030),2035s(2031–2040)and 2045s(2041–2050)under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario.The results show that the risk of debris fows increases with climate change,with the highest risk level in the 2025s.Among diferent parts of this highway,the upper reaches of the Ghez River and the second half of Tashkorgan-Khunjerab are the sections with the highest risk.These fndings are helpful for debris fow prevention and can ofer coping strategies for the existing line of the KKH.They also provide some reference for the renovation,improvement,operation,and maintenance of the KKH.