直行非机动车流膨胀效应严重程度影响因素分析

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Severity of the Width Expansion of Non-Motorized Vehicle Flow in Straight Direction

为剖析不同因素对非机动车流膨胀程度影响的差异性,文章利用广义有序logit模型,选取直行非机动车流膨胀宽度为因变量,右转机动车交通量、左转非机动车比例、直行非机动车交通量、行人交通量、电动自行车比例等9个因素为自变量,分析不同影响因素对直行非机动车流膨胀宽度影响程度。结果表明:右转机动车交通量、直行行人交通量增加会不同程度降低非机动车流膨胀发生的概率,而左转非机动车比例、直行非机动车交通量、电动自行车比例变大会加剧膨胀程度;机非隔离形式、非机动车道宽度等变量对不同膨胀程度等级的影响存在差异。基于模型回归及边际效应计算结果,提出了改善非机动车膨胀效应的建议。

To analyze the differences in the impact of different factors on the expansion of nonmotorized vehicle traffic,this study used a generalized ordered logit model to examine the impact of different influencing factors on the width expansion of non-motorized vehicle flow in straight direction.The dependent variable selected was the expansion width of direct non-motorized vehicle flow,the independent variables chosen included 9 factors,such as right turn motor vehicle traffic volume,left turn non-motorized vehicle proportion,direct non-motorized vehicle traffic volume,pedestrian traffic volume,electric bicycle proportion,etc.The results indicate that increasing the traffic volume of right-turning motor vehicles and straight-crossing pedestrians decreases the probability of nonmotorized vehicle flow expansion to varying degrees.However,an increase in the proportion of left-turning non-motorized vehicles,the traffic volume of straight non-motorized vehicles,or the proportion of electric bicycles intensifies the degree of expansion.The impact of variables such as the form of non-motorized vehicle segregation and the width of non-motorized vehicle lanes differs depending on the level of expansion.Based on the results obtained from model regression and marginal effect calculation,the suggestions are proposed to improve the expansion effect of non-motorized vehicles.