赣州市赣县区暴雨天气统计分析及防灾减灾对策

Statistical analysis of rainstorm weather in Ganxian district of Ganzhou and countermeasures for disaster preventionand reduction

文章利用赣县区1991—2020年逐月暴雨日数、降水量和逐年暴雨量资料,选择一元线性回归法和滑动平均法对赣州市赣县区暴雨天气特征进行统计分析。结果表明:1991—2020年赣县区多年平均降水量为1436.7mm,整体以增加趋势为主,变化倾向率为20.262mm/10a,只是增加趋势不显著。针对暴雨引发的洪涝灾害,需要引起当地气象部门和其他职能部门的高度工作,对工作职责进行明确,全面贯彻落实各项工作责任;还要加强监测预警和信息发布,根据预案规定严格落实值班带班制度,以降低灾害损失。

In this paper,the monthly rainstorm days,precipitation and annual rainstorm data of Ganxian district from 1991 to 2020 are used to make statistical analysis of rainstorm weather characteristics in Ganxian district,Ganzhou by using the linear Law of Return method and the moving average method.The results show that the average annual precipitation in Ganxian district from 1991 to 2020 is 1436.7mm,and the overall trend is mainly increasing,with the change tendency rate of 20.262mm/10a,but the increase trend is not significant.In view of the flood disaster caused by rainstorm,the local meteorological department and other functional departments need to work at a high level,clarify the work responsibilities,and fully implement the work responsibilities;We also need to strengthen monitoring,early warning,and information dissemination,strictly implement the duty system according to the provisions of the contingency plan,in order to reduce disaster losses.