基于统计检验法的烟台市海域地震中短期预测

Medium and short term earthquake prediction in the sea area of Yantai city based on statistical testing method

山东属于地震频发区,虽然地震预测较为困难,但是为了减少人民生命财产的损失,如果能够对地震的预测做出一些探索就显得很有意义。文章以烟台市海域地震2012—2022年间3级(含)以上地震数据为研究对象,采用统计学法来探索烟台海域中短期地震特征,建立了线性预测模型和多项式预测模型,并对模型进行了优化。通过对比检验,认为所选模型可行,并根据优化模型进行了中短期地震预测。研究结果可为预测烟台海域中短期地震提供参考。

Earthquakes often occur in Shandong Province.Although earthquake prediction is relatively difficult,in order to reduce the loss of people’s lives and property,it is meaningful to explore earthquake prediction.The paper takes the seismic data of earthquakes with a magnitude of 3 or above in the sea area of Yantai City from 2012 to 2022 as the research object.Statistical methods are used to explore the characteristics of medium and short term earthquakes in the Yantai sea area.Linear prediction models and polynomial prediction models are established,and the models are optimized.Through comparative testing,it was found that the selected model was feasible,and based on the optimized model,medium and short term earthquake prediction was carried out.The research results provide reference for predicting medium and short term earthquakes in the Yantai sea area.